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Information Processing & Management
Volume 23, Issue 6, 1987, Pages 583-592
 
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doi:10.1016/0306-4573(87)90062-8    How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 1987 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

The convergence of Moore's/Mooers' law's

Michael E. D. Koenig

School of Library Service, Columbia University, New York, NY 10026, and Trafinex Limited, New York, NY 10105, USA

Received 20 November 1986; 
accepted 25 February 1987. ;
Available online 6 November 2003.

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Abstract

A four-stage hypothesis of information systems development is presented. The stages derive from the application of Moore's Law—that the number of elements that can be integrated onto a chip is doubling roughly every year—the expression of the very rapid exponential rate of growth of information systems technology, and the application of Mooers' Law—that an information system will only be used when it is more trouble not to use it than it is to use it—the quintessential expression of the importance of human factors. It is argued that we are now roughly halfway along this developmental process, about to make the transition from Stage II to Stage 111, and that from that conclusion we can make some useful projections for and about the future.

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