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Journal of Financial Economics
Volume 17, Issue 1, September 1986, Pages 175-196
 
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doi:10.1016/0304-405X(86)90010-3    How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 1986 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Term premiums and default premiums in money markets

Eugene F. Fama*

University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA

Available online 5 March 2002.

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Abstract

There are time-varying term and default premiums in the expected returns on money market securities. Default premiums decline with maturity and tend to be higher during recessions. Term premiums tend to increase with maturity during good times, but humps and inversions in the term structure of expected returns are common during recessions. Treasury bills produce positive average term premiums for the overall sample, but average term premiums for private-issuer securities are close to 0.0. A general conclusion is that variation in forward rates is primarily variation in current epected returns rather than in forecasts of changes in interest rates.

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Journal of Financial Economics
Volume 17, Issue 1, September 1986, Pages 175-196
 
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