Copyright © 1988 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
On the informational content of spot and forward exchange rates
Available online 22 April 2002.
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Abstract
In foreign exchange markets, efficiency tests have typically been applied to the forward rate on the argument that the forward rate should be a good proxy for the unobservable market expectations of future spot rates. The present study offers innovations in two directions. First we utilize a data set which consists of daily observations on spot and forward exchange rates. This allows us to match the forward contract with the exact settlement date and to create a large number of non-overlapping data sets. Second, and more importantly, we show that in general the current spot rate is a ‘better’ predictor of the future spot rate than is the current forward rate of appropriate maturity.







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