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Journal of International Money and Finance
Volume 7, Issue 3, September 1988, Pages 321-330
 
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doi:10.1016/0261-5606(88)90034-4    How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 1988 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the informational content of spot and forward exchange rates

K. Alec Chrystal and Daniel L. Thornton*

University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 1FL, UK Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, MO 63166, USA

Available online 22 April 2002.

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Abstract

In foreign exchange markets, efficiency tests have typically been applied to the forward rate on the argument that the forward rate should be a good proxy for the unobservable market expectations of future spot rates. The present study offers innovations in two directions. First we utilize a data set which consists of daily observations on spot and forward exchange rates. This allows us to match the forward contract with the exact settlement date and to create a large number of non-overlapping data sets. Second, and more importantly, we show that in general the current spot rate is a ‘better’ predictor of the future spot rate than is the current forward rate of appropriate maturity.

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