Forecasting competitors' actions: An evaluation of alternative ways of analyzing business competition

doi:10.1016/0169-2070(90)90099-W

International Journal of Forecasting

Volume 6, Issue 1, 1990, Pages 75-88

https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(90)90099-W Get rights and content

Abstract

The task of forecasting business competitors' actions has not received much attention in the forecasting literature. Thus there is little guidance to practitioners as to which forecasting methods to use. At a more fundamental level there is confusion in the literature about the relevance of the various theories for analyzing business competition. This paper appraises alternative theories and methods that are found in the literature of economics, psychology, and business administration. Strategic management techniques and behavioral decision theories that combine elements of economics with psychology are likely to be more useful in competitor analysis. The associated forecasting techniques using expert opinion, intentions surveys, role playing and expert systems are recommended.

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Forecasting competitors' actions: An evaluation of alternative ways of analyzing business competition

Abstract

Long Range Planning

European Journal of Operational Research

Acta Psychologies

Business Horizons

European Economic Review

On Purposeful Systems

Long Range Forecasting; From Crystal Ball to Computer

Forecasting methods for conflict situations

Forecasting methods for marketing: Review of empirical research

International Journal of Forecasting

The Evolution of Cooperation

Cognitive biases and their impact on strategic planning

Strategic Management Journal

The escalation of commitment in sequential decision making: Situational and personal moderators and limiting conditions

Decision Sciences

A contingency model for the selection of decision strategies

Academy of Management Review

Hypergames and what they do: A soft O.R. approach

Journal of the Operational Research Society

The application of population ecology models to the study of organizations

Academy of Management Review

Participation in budgeting, locus of control and organizational effectiveness

Accounting Review

Lanchester market structures: A Japanese approach to the analysis of business competition

Strategic Management Journal

Game Theory and Experimental Games, The Study of Strategic Interaction

Cooperation and Competition in Humans and Animals

Models of competition: A review of theory and empirical evidence

Conjectures on cognitive simplification in acquisition and divestment decision making

Academy of Management Review

A competitive scenario modeling system

Management Science

Models of industrial buyer behavior: A state-of-the-art review

Analytical models of competition with implications for marketing: Issues, findings, and outlook

Journal of Marketing Research

Auction and bidding: A survey

Management Science

Oligopoly Theory

Economies' contributions to competitor intelligence in business

Upper echelons: The organization as a reflection of its top managers

Academy of Management Review

Market responses, competitive behavior and time series analysis

Journal of Marketing Research

Subjective probability and the theory of games: Comments on Kadane and Larkey

Management Science

Defensive marketing strategies

Marketing Science

The anatomy of competition

Journal of Marketing

The analysis of options in business problems

INFOR

A basic paradigm for the study of personality, roles and social behavior

Decision Making

Thinking: Readings in Cognitive Science

The confusion of is and ought in game theoretic contexts

Management Science

Competition and management controls

Journal of Accounting Research

Equilibrium market share - A measure of competitive strength

Strategic Management Journal

Generic competitive strategies - An analytic approach

Strategic Management Journal

The value of market share and the product life-cycle: A game-theoretic approach

Management Science