Effects of some probability displays on choices☆

https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(73)90032-9Get rights and content

Abstract

This research deals with deviations from the EV model. Ss in two experiments were required to select one of two mutually exclusive actions characterized by an identical probability of success. Each action, however, consisted of two sequential steps. The probability of success at the first step of one action was greater than the probability of success at the first step of the alternative action. Ss were made aware of the individual probabilities of success for each step as well as the joint probability of success. The EV model would predict that individuals would be indifferent in their selection of alternative actions. However, Ss were not indifferent; they systematically preferred actions in which the probability of success in the first step was higher. This preference for initial probability of success generally persisted with some exception throughout variations in experimental conditions designed to test for the stability of the effect.

References (34)

  • N.H. Anderson

    Application of a weighted average model to a psychophysical averaging task

    Psychonomic Science

    (1967)
  • N.H. Anderson et al.

    Further data on a weighed average model for judgment in a lifted weight task

    Perception and Psychophysics

    (1968)
  • N.H. Anderson et al.

    Order effects in impression formation in four classes of stimuli

    Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology

    (1964)
  • S.E. Asch

    Forming impressions of personality

    Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology

    (1946)
  • V.J. Chacko

    Testing homogeneity against ordered alternatives

    Annals of Mathematical Statistics

    (1963)
  • V.J. Chacko

    Modified chi-square test for ordered alternatives

    Sankha, the Indian Journal of Statistics

    (1966)
  • J. Cohen et al.

    Risk and gambling

    (1956)
  • H.C.A. Dale

    Weighing evidence: An attempt to assess the efficiency of the human operator

    Ergonomics

    (1968)
  • D. Davidson et al.

    Decision-making: An experimental approach

    (1957)
  • W. Edwards

    Probability-preferences in gambling

    American Journal of Psychology

    (1953)
  • W. Edwards

    Probability preferences among bets with differing expected values

    American Journal of Psychology

    (1954)
  • W. Edwards

    The reliability of probability preferences

    American Journal of Psychology

    (1954)
  • W. Edwards

    Variance preferences in gambling

    American Journal of Psychology

    (1954)
  • W. Edwards

    The prediction of decisions among bets

    Journal of Experimental Psychology

    (1955)
  • W. Edwards

    Probability learning in 1,000 trials

    Journal of Experimental Psychology

    (1961)
  • W. Edwards

    Subjective probabilities inferred from decisions

    Psychological Review

    (1962)
  • D.E. Erlick

    Judgments of the relative frequency of a sequential series of two events

    Journal of Experimental Psychology

    (1961)

    • Cited by (0)

    ☆

    This paper is based on my doctoral dissertation submitted to Stanford University. I would like to express my indebtedness to Alex Bavelas for his help and guidance throughout this study. Hillel J. Einhorn of the University of Chicago provided further insights during the later stages of this paper.

    View full text
    Copyright © 1973 Published by Elsevier Inc.