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Journal of Theoretical Biology
Volume 100, Issue 3, 7 February 1983, Pages 411-426
 
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doi:10.1016/0022-5193(83)90438-1    How to Cite or Link Using DOI (Opens New Window)
Copyright © 1983 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A game-theoretical model of parasite virulence

Hans J. Bremermann and John Pickering

Department of Mathematics and Department of Biophysics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, U.S.A. Department of Entomological Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, U.S.A.

Received 12 July 1982. 
Available online 17 December 2004.

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Abstract

The evolution of parasitic reproductive rates, relative infectiousness and severity of disease are considered using a game-theoretical model in which parasites compete within hosts. Each parasite's fitness is assumed to be directly proportional to the product of its reproductive rate (λ) and the length of time (T) over which it reproduces. An increase in a parasite's reproductive rate is assumed to increase its host's disease-induced mortality rate (α) and consequently, through host death, to decrease T. By maximizing the total number of propagules that individuals produce with respect to their individual reproductive rates, we show that competitors within a host may be favored by natural selection to reproduce at rates below their maximum potential rates. Whether competitors behaving with such restraint can coexist at a Nash equilibrium is shown to depend on the functional form of a (λ) and on the number of competitors within a host. While an individual's restraint benefits its within-host competitors through increased host longevity, the model does not invoke group selection. In the model, selection favors an individual's restraint when such behavior increases the individual's total number of propagules. Concurrent increases in the absolute and relative fitness of an individual's within-host competitors can be consequences of such individual selection.

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Journal of Theoretical Biology
Volume 100, Issue 3, 7 February 1983, Pages 411-426
 
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