Building adaptive capacity to cope with increasing vulnerability due to climatic change in Africa – A new approach

Abstract

The world community faces many risks from climate change, with most scenarios indicating higher temperatures and more erratic rainfall in Africa. Predictions for southern Africa suggest a general decrease in total seasonal rainfall, accompanied by more frequent in-season dry spells that will significantly impact crop and livestock production, and hence economic growth in the region. The hardest hit will be the rural poor in the drier areas, where crop failure due to drought is already common and chronic food emergencies afflict the region in most years. Lessons can be learnt on how the rural poor currently cope with the vagaries of climate and these can be used to help them adapt their current production systems to the future threats of further climate change. But this assumes the institutions that work towards the economic empowerment of the rural poor have the requisite skills to understand their current coping strategies and how adaptation can be facilitated. A new initiative led by Midlands State University and the Zambian Meteorological Office proposes that improving the ability of institutions that train the ‘Future Change Agents’, who will subsequently support smallholder communities in adapting their agricultural practices to current climate variability, is the first step in building adaptive capacity to cope with future climate change. The capacity of African scientists, regional organizations and decision-makers in dealing with the issues of climate change and adaptation will be enhanced on a continuing basis, and the impacts of their agricultural development programs improved.

Introduction

The greatest development challenge facing our increasingly globalized world is the long-term sustainable development of Africa’s rural poor (UN, 2000). Since the year 2000, the energies of development partners worldwide have focused on achieving measurable targets through the time bound (2000–2015) Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Whilst significant progress has been made towards these goals in the less developed regions of the America’s and Asia, the dryland regions of sub-Saharan Africa have not made the same progress (UN, 2005). This is principally because they have not been able to generate sustained economic growth of the type that now characterizes much of Asia. Indeed for much of Africa the situation is actually getting worse, as documented in “Our Common Interest,” the recent broad constituency report of the Africa Commission (2005).

“African poverty and stagnation is the greatest tragedy of our time. Poverty on such a scale demands a forceful response. And Africa – at country, regional, and continental levels – is creating much stronger foundations for tackling its problems. Recent years have seen improvements in economic growth and in governance. But Africa needs more of both if it is to make serious inroads into poverty. To do that requires a partnership between Africa and the developed world, which takes full account of Africa’s diversity and particular circumstances. (Africa Commission, 2005).”

Unfortunately, efforts to develop African economies and achieve the MDGs must contend with the increasing challenge of climate change (see for example, Love et al., 2006, Stern, 2006, UNDP, 2006). Most scientists now agree that global warming is inevitable, (IPCC, 2007), and that it will have major impacts on the climate worldwide and agricultural productivity, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (Table 1).

In this paper we review the challenges of future climate change on smallholder agriculture in Africa, and what steps are required to build adaptive capacity within the research and development community of southern Africa to help smallholder farmers cope with these future challenges.