Abstract
It is a known fact that the precipitation characteristics will become irregular as a result of climate change resulting from global warming. Trend analysis is one of the most effective methods of observing the effects of climate change on precipitation. This study compares the changes in precipitation with traditional trend analysis methods and graphical method (divided into subcategories using the Z-Score Index). Some preliminary analyzes (missing data estimation, homogeneity check, autocorrelation, and removal of the autocorrelation), which are lacking in many studies in the literature, have been performed. In this context, the monthly total precipitation data of the precipitation stations belonging to the Coruh Basin, one of the most important basins of Turkey, for the period 1972–2011 were used. As a result of the study, it was determined that all the stations’ data were homogeneous, and 92% of them were at the Class A level. While 100% trend is determined in Innovative Trend Analysis in total annual precipitation, this rate was just 40% at Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho at 95% confidence. An increasing trend was determined in the “high” group of total spring precipitation at all stations.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of data and material
Not applicable.
References
Adarsh S, Janga Reddy M (2014) Trend analysis of rainfall in four meteorological subdivisions of southern India using nonparametric methods and discrete wavelet transforms. Int J Climatol 35:1107–1124. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4042
Aieb A, Madani K, Scarpa M, Bonaccorso B, Lefsih K (2019) A new approach for processing climate missing databases applied to daily rainfall data in Soummam watershed, Algeria. Heliyon. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e01247
Akçay F (2018) Trend analysis for the monthly and yearly mean flows of the Eastern Black Sea Basin. MS Thesis, The Graduate school of natural and applied sciences, Civil Engineering Graduate Program, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon, Turkey
Akhtari R, Morid S, Mahdian MH, Smakhtin V (2009) Assessment of areal interpolation methods for spatial analysis of SPI and EDI drought indices. Int J Climatol 29:135–145
Akpınar A, Kömürcü İM, Kankal M, Filiz MH (2009) Çoruh Havzası’ndaki küçük hidroelektrik santrallerin durumu. V. Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynakları Sempozyumu, ss. 249–254. Diyarbakır, Türkiye
Akşan GN, Bacanli ÜG (2021) Comparison of the meteorological drought indices according to the parameter (s) used in the Southeastern Anatolia Region, Turkey. Environ Res Technol 4:230–243. https://doi.org/10.35208/ert.912990
Alexandersson H (1986) A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. J Climatol 6:661–675. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370060607
Alifujiang Y, Abuduwaili J, Maihemuti B, Emin B, Groll M (2020) Innovative trend analysis of precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin. Kyrgyzstan Atmos. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040332
Bacanli UG (2017) Trend analysis of precipitation and drought in the Aegean region, Turkey. Meteorol Appl 24:239–249. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1622
Bárdossy A, Pegram G (2014) Infilling missing precipitation records–a comparison of a new copula-based method with other techniques. J Hydrol 519:1162–1170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.025
Buishand TA (1982) Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. J Hydrol 58:11–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(82)90066-X
Caloiero T (2018) SPI trend analysis of New Zealand applying the ITA technique. Geosciences. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8030101
Conrad VA, Pollak LW (1950) Methods in climatology. Harvard University Press, London
Dabanlı İ, Şen Z, Yeleğen MÖ, Şişman E, Selek B, Güçlü YS (2016) Trend assessment by the Innovative-Şen Method. Water Resour Manage 30:5193–5203. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1478-4
Dore MH (2005) Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: what do we know? Environ Int 31:1167–1181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2005.03.004
Forootan E (2019) Analysis of trends of hydrologic and climatic variables. Soil Water Res 14:163–171. https://doi.org/10.17221/154/2018-SWR
Gauthier TD (2001) Detecting trends using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. Environ Forensics 2:359–362. https://doi.org/10.1080/713848278
Gocic M, Trajkovic S (2014) Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate. Hydrol Sci J 59:165–180. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.798659
Guclu YS (2018) Multiple Şen-innovative trend analyses and partial Mann-Kendall test. J Hydrol 566:685–704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.034
Guclu YS (2020) Improved visualization for trend analysis by comparing with classical Mann Kendall test and ITA. J Hydrol. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124674
Haan CT (1977) Statistical methods in hydrology. The Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa
Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204:182–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014) Intergovernmental panel on climate change 2014 Synthesis report. Switzerland, Geneva
Isioma NI, Rudolph II, Omena AL (2018) Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test statistics for rainfall trend analysis in some selected states within the Coastal Region of Nigeria. J Civil, Constr Environ Eng 3:17–28. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jccee.20180301.14
Jain VK, Pandey RP, Jain MK, Byun HR (2015) Comparison of drought indices for appraisal of drought characteristics in the Ken River Basin. Weather and Climate Extremes 8:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.05.002
Jaiswal RK, Lohani AK, Tiwari HL (2015) Statistical analysis for change detection and trend assessment in climatological parameters. Environmental Processes 2:729–749. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-015-0105-3
Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation method. Charless Griffin, London
Khosravi G, Nafarzadegan AR, Nohegar A, Fathizadeh H, Malekian A (2015) A modified distance-weighted approach for filling annual precipitation gaps: application to different climates of Iran. Theoret Appl Climatol 119:33–42. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1091-5
Kisi O (2015) An innovative method for trend analysis of monthly pan evaporations. J Hydrol 527:1123–1129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.009
Komuscu AU (1999) Using the SPI to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of drought in Turkey. Drought network news (1994–2001). Paper 49:7–13
Li L, Ngongondo CS, Xu CY, Gong L (2013) Comparison of the global TRMM and WFD precipitation datasets in driving a large-scale hydrological model in southern Africa. Hydrol Res 44:770–788. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2012.175
Mahmoudi P, Rigi A, Kamak MM (2019) A comparative study of precipitation-based drought indices with the aim of selecting the best index for drought monitoring in Iran. Theoret Appl Climatol 137:3123–3138. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02778-z
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259
Mehr AD, Vaheddoost B (2020) Identification of the trends associated with the SPI and SPEI indices across Ankara, Turkey. Theoret Appl Climatol 139:1531–1542. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03071-9
Morid S, Smakhtin V, Moghaddasi M (2006) Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran. Int J Climatol 26:971–985. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1264
Nalley D, Adamowski J, Khalil B, Ozga-Zielinski B (2013) Trend detection in surface air temperature in Ontario and Quebec, Canada during 1967–2006 using the discrete wavelet transform. Atmos Res 132:375–398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.06.011
Oztopal A, Sen Z (2017) Innovative trend methodology applications to precipitation records in Turkey. Water Resour Manage 31:727–737. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1343-5
Partal T (2003) Trend analysis in Turkey precipitation data. MS. Thesis, Institute of science, Hydraulics and water resources engineering program, Istanbul technical university, Istanbul, Turkey
Peterson TC et al (1998) Homogeneity adjustments of in Situ atmospheric climate data: a review. Int J Climatol 18:1493–1517. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19981115)18:13%3c1493::AID-JOC329%3e3.0.CO;2-T
Pettitt AN (1979) A Non-Parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl Stat 28:126–135. https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729
Río SD, Herrero L, Fraile R, Penas A (2011) Spatial distribution of recent rainfall trends in Spain (1961–2006). Int J Climatol 31:656–667. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2111
Sagarika S, Kalra A, Ahmad S (2014) Evaluating the effect of persistence on long-term trends and analyzing step changes in streamflows of the continental United States. J Hydrol 517:36–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.002
Sattari MT, Rezazadeh-Joudi A, Kusiak A (2017) Assessment of different methods for estimation of missing data in precipitation studies. Hydrol Res 48:1032–1044. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2016.364
Searcy JK, Hardison CH (1960) Double-mass curves. USGS Publications Warehouse Web. https://pubs.usgs.gov/wsp/1541b/report.pdf. Accessed 8 November 2021
Sen Z (2012) Innovative trend analysis methodology. J Hydrol Eng 17:1042–1046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556
Sonali P, Kumar Nagesh D (2013) Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India. J Hydrol 476:212–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.034
Süme V, Türüt R (2018) Aşağı Çoruh'ta bulunan barajların hidroelektrik potansiyeli ve çevresel etkileri. Türk Hidrolik Dergisi 2:12–18
Toride K, Cawthorne DL, Ishida K, Kavvas ML, Anderson ML (2018) Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed. Sci Total Environ 626:244–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.004
Tosunoglu F (2017) Trend analysis of daily maximum rainfall series in Coruh Basin, Turkey. J Inst Sci Technol 7:195–205
Tosunoglu F (2014) Investigating the relationship between atmospheric oscillations and meteorological and hydrological droughts in Turkey. PhD thesis, Graduate school of natural and applied sciences, Department of Civil Engineering, Ataturk University, Erzurum, Turkey
TSMS.(2020)Hydrometeorology.[online].https://www.mgm.gov.tr/FILES/genel/kitaplar/hidrometeoroloji.pdf. Accessed 4 November 2020. (in Turkish)
Vincent LA et al (2005) Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America 1960–2000. J Clim 18:5011–5023. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3589.1
Von Neumann J (1941) Distribution of the ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance. Ann Math Stat 12:367–395. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177731677
Wijngaard JB, Klein Tank AMG, Konnen GP (2003) Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. Int J Climatol 23:679–692. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.906
Yerdelen C, Karimi Y, Kahya E (2010) Frequency analysis of mean monthly stream flow in Coruh Basin, Turkey. Fresenius Environ Bull 19:1300–1311
Yilmaz M, Tosunoglu F (2019) Trend assessment of annual instantaneous maximum flows in Turkey. Hydrol Sci J 64:820–834. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1608996
Yu YS, Zou S, Whittemore D (1993) Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas. J Hydrol 150:61–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(93)90156-4
Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability todetect trend in hydrological series. Hydrol Process 16:1807–1829. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1095
Zaifoglu H, Akintug B, Yanmaz AM (2017) Quality control, homogenity analysis and trends of extreme precipitation indices in Northern Cyprus. J Hydrol Eng. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001589
Zarei AR, Eslamian S (2017) Trend assessment of precipitation and drought index (SPI) using parametric and non-parametric trend analysis methods (case study: arid regions of southern Iran). Int J Hydrol Sci Technol 7:12–38. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJHST.2017.080957
Funding
No funding to declare.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
There are no conflicts of interest to declare.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hırca, T., Eryılmaz Türkkan, G. Comparison of Statistical Methods to Graphical Method in Precipitation Trend Analysis, A Case Study: Coruh Basin, Turkey. Iran J Sci Technol Trans Civ Eng 46, 4605–4617 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40996-022-00869-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40996-022-00869-y