Abstract
This paper argues that imperfect data should not hinder the search for alternative projection models and methods. Given the available data on urbanization, autoregressive projection models should be preferred to explanatory models for projections though explanatory models are more suitable for analyzing past trends. Alternatives to the UN’s projection method, Bayesian projection included, should account for the social and economic inequalities embedded in the global, national and sub-national urban systems.
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Notes
The World Urbanization Prospects database (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/) refers to the publicly available estimates and projections for urban and rural, population and cities for locations greater than 750,000 persons, as described by Buettner in this volume.
WUP2011 data source Urban Population, China: up to 1982: total population of cities and towns. Cities had to have a population of at least 100,000 or command special administrative, strategic, or economic importance to qualify as cities. Towns were either settlements with more than 3000 inhabitants of whom more than 70 % were registered as non-agricultural or settlements with a population ranging from 2500 to 3000 inhabitants of whom more than 85 % were registered as non-agricultural. For the 1990 census, the urban population included: (1) all residents of urban districts in provincial and prefectural-level cities; (2) resident population of "streets" (jiedao) in county-level cities; (3) population of all residents' committees in towns. For the 2000 census, the urban population was composed of population in City Districts with an average population density of at least 1500 persons per square kilometer, other population in suburban-district units and township-level units meeting criteria such as "contiguous built-up area," being the location of the local government, or being a Street or having a Resident Committee. For the 2010 census, urban population included all urban residents meeting the criterion defined by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in 2008, i.e., the criterion used in the 2000 census plus residents living in villages or towns in outer urban and suburban areas that are directly connected to municipal infrastructure, and that receive public services from urban municipalities (Downloaded 19 June 2013).
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Bocquier, P. The Future of Urban Projections: Suggested Improvements on the UN Method. Spat Demogr 3, 109–122 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40980-015-0005-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40980-015-0005-1