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Assessment of runoff changes in the sub-basin of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China based on multiple methods

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Abstract

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff plays a pivotal role in water resource management and maintaining ecosystem integrity. This study considered six sub-basins in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China, to reveal the trend of the runoff evolution and clarify the driving factors of the changes during 1956–2020. Linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, and sliding t-test were used to study the trend of the hydrometeorological elements, while cumulative distance level and ordered clustering methods were applied to identify mutation points. The contributions of climate change and human disturbance to runoff changes were quantitatively assessed using three methods, i.e., the rainfall-runoff relationship method, slope variation method, and variable infiltration capacity (Budyko) hypothesis method. Then, the availability and stability of the three methods were compared. The results showed that the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin exhibited a decreasing trend from 1956 to 2020, with an abrupt change in 1985. For attribution analysis, the runoff series could be divided into two phases, i.e., 1961–1985 (baseline period) and 1986–2020 (changing period); and it was found that the rainfall-runoff relationship method with precipitation as the representative of climate factors had limited usability compared with the other two methods, while the slope variation and Budyko hypothesis methods had highly consistent results. Different factors showed different effects in the sub-basins of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin. Moreover, human disturbance was the main factor that contributed to the runoff changes, accounting for 53.0%–82.0%; and the contribution of climate factors to the runoff change was 17.0%–47.0%, making it the secondary factor, in which precipitation was the most representative climate factor. These results provide insights into how climate and anthropogenic changes synergistically influence the runoff of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52009140).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China

    Xingbo Wang, Shuanghu Zhang & Yiman Tian

  2. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Yiman Tian

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  1. Xingbo Wang
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Contributions

Conceptualization: WANG Xingbo; Methodology: WANG Xingbo; Formal analysis: WANG Xingbo; Writing - original draft preparation: WANG Xingbo; Writing - review and editing: WANG Xingbo; Supervision: ZHANG Shuanghu, TIAN Yiman. All authors approved the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Shuanghu Zhang.

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The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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Wang, X., Zhang, S. & Tian, Y. Assessment of runoff changes in the sub-basin of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China based on multiple methods. J. Arid Land 16, 461–482 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-024-0010-6

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