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Rates and Probable Causes of Freshwater Tidal Marsh Failure, Potomac River Estuary, Northern Virginia, USA

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Abstract

Dyke Marsh, a distal tidal marsh along the Potomac River estuary, is diminishing rapidly in areal extent. This study documents Dyke Marsh erosion rates from the early-1860s to the present during pre-mining, mining, and post-mining phases. From the late-1930s to the mid-1970s, Dyke Marsh and the adjacent shallow riverbottom were mined for gravel, resulting in a ~55 % initial loss of area. Marsh loss continued during the post-mining phase (1976–2012). Causes of post-mining loss were unknown, but were thought to include Potomac River flooding. Post-mining areal-erosion rates increased from 0.138 ha yr−1 (~0.37 ac yr−1) to 0.516 ha yr−1 (~1.67 ac yr−1), and shoreline-erosion rates increased from 0.76 m yr−1 (~2.5 ft yr−1) to 2.60 m yr−1 (~8.5 ft yr−1). Results suggest the accelerating post-mining erosion reflects a process-driven feedback loop, enabled by the marsh's severely-altered geomorphic and hydrologic baseline system; the primary post-mining degradation process is wave-induced erosion from northbound cyclonic storms. Dyke Marsh erosion rates are now comparable to, or exceed, rates for proximal coastal marshes in the same region. Persistent and accelerated erosion of marshland long after cessation of mining illustrates the long-term, and potentially devastating, effects that temporally-restricted, anthropogenic destabilization can have on estuarine marsh systems.

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Notes

  1. Maximum travel distance across open water

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Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program. We acknowledge with deep gratitude Dottie Marshall (retired), former Superintendent of George Washington Memorial Parkway, and Jon James, Acting Superintendent of GWMP, for their support for this project as well as access to NPS watercraft and associated field personnel. We thank Diane Eldridge at the USGS for 2009 imagery of Dyke Marsh. We acknowledge with gratitude Stephen Ambrose and Scott Stephens of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for resource help in acquiring data on hurricane wind events. We acknowledge Kevin Foley (USGS) and several anonymous reviewers, whose thoughtful suggestions improved this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. U.S. Geological Survey, MS926A, USGS National Center, Reston, VA, 20192, USA

    Ronald J. Litwin, Joseph P. Smoot & Milan J. Pavich

  2. U.S. National Park Service, George Washington Memorial Parkway, Turkey Run Park, McLean, VA, 22101, USA

    Erik Oberg, Brent Steury & Ben Helwig

  3. U.S. Geological Survey, 1770 Corporate Drive, Suite 500, Norcross, GA, 30093, USA

    Helaine W. Markewich

  4. U.S. National Park Service, 1201 I Street NW, Washington, DC, 20005, USA

    Vincent L. Santucci

  5. U.S. National Park Service, 4598 MacArthur Blvd NW, Washington, DC, 20007, USA

    Geoffrey Sanders

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  1. Ronald J. Litwin
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Correspondence to Ronald J. Litwin.

Appendices

Appendix 1. Digital Historic Maps of Dyke Marsh and its Adjacent Bathymetry

1A. Map detail from: Potomac River (in four sheets). Sheet no. 4: Indian Head to Georgetown. Survey of the coast of the United States. U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Series 391 (1862). NOAA Historical Map Series image 391-00-1862. This map illustrates the shoreline contour of marsh, tidal creeks #2 and #4, and shallow riverbottom surrounding the marsh.

1B. Map detail from: Banks of the Potomac River from Alexandria to Ft. Washington. U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey. (1864). NOAA Historical Map Series image 53793-00-1864. This map documents the first known designation for Dyke Marsh (“Hell Hole”) and the first usage of Hog Island Gut, the main tidal channel on the marsh. It also illustrates the shoreline contour of the marsh, and tidal creeks #2 and #4.

1C. Map detail from: Potomac River (in four sheets). Sheet no. 4: Indian Head to Georgetown. Survey of the coast of the United States. U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Series 391 (1883).

NOAA Historical Map Series image NC391ED4. This map illustrates the shoreline contour of marsh, tidal creeks #2 and #4, and shallow riverbottom surrounding the marsh.

1D. Map detail from: Potomac River. West Shore: Mt. Vernon to Alexandria, Virginia. U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Series 2620 (1902). NOAA Historical Map Series image T02620-00-1902. This map illustrates the shoreline contour of marsh, and indications of tidal creeks #1 to #4.

1E. Map detail from: Potomac River. Mattawoman Creek to Georgetown. U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Series 560 (1933). NOAA Historical Map Series image 560-1-1933. This map illustrates the shoreline contour of marsh, tidal creeks #1 to #4, the shallow riverbottom surrounding the marsh, and the first deep dredging into that shallow riverbottom at “New Alexandria” (now Belle Haven Marina).

1F. Map detail from: Potomac River. Mattawoman Creek to Georgetown. U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Series 560 (1940). NOAA Historical Map Series image 560-9-1940. This map illustrates the shoreline contour of marsh, tidal creeks #1 to #4, the shallow riverbottom surrounding the marsh, the first deep dredging into that shallow riverbottom at “New Alexandria” (now Belle Haven Marina), and the first deep dredging at the southern marsh to enable mining access at the southern promontory.

1G. Map detail from: Potomac River. Mattawoman Creek to Georgetown. U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Series 12289 (1975). NOAA Historical Map Series image 12289-4-1975. This map illustrates the mined marsh shoreface profile, but had not been corrected for bathymetry (note the absence of sounding depths adjacent to the marsh shoreface).

1H. Map detail from: Potomac River. Mattawoman Creek to Georgetown. U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Series 12289 (1976). NOAA Historical Map Series image 12289-3-1976. This map illustrates an inaccurately dissected marsh shoreface, but begins to update bathymetry near the marsh, indicating dissection of the previously shallow riverbottom. Arrows in this figure correspond to arrows (in 1 J) marking the transect of subsurface (riverbottom) borings noted in Palermo and Ziegler (1976).

1J. Map detail from Palermo and Ziegler (1976; modified from their figure 16). Borings DM-1 to DM-3 are the source for our subsurface information on the observed maximum depth of organic rich sediments. Note the bathymetry detail greatly exceeds that presented in 1H, and documents that dredging occurred down to ~9 m (30 ft) below mean low water.

1K. Map detail from: Potomac River. Mattawoman Creek to Georgetown. U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Series 12289 (1992). NOAA Historical Map Series image 12289-3-1992. This map illustrates more detailed bathymetry east of the marsh, indicating deep dredge scars. This map is concurrent with the NPS bathymetric profile of 1992, illustrated in Fig. 6 (the latter of which exhibits greater detail).

1L. Map detail from: Potomac River. Mattawoman Creek to Georgetown. U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Series 12289 (2010). NOAA Historical Map Series image 12289-10-2010. This map also illustrates more detailed bathymetry east of the marsh, indicating deep dredge scars. This map is approximately concurrent with the NPS bathymetric profile of 2009, illustrated in Fig. 6 (the latter of which exhibits greater detail).

figure a

Appendix 2. Estimating Streamflow from Floodcrest Elevation at Little Falls, MD. Data Source: NOAA (2011; see Table 2, this study).

Based on the regression equation derived from the rest of the flood dataset in Table 2, the 3.08 m (10.1 ft) flood crest recorded on 5/12/2008 likely represented a flood event that equaled or exceeded 3851 m3s−1 (136,000 ft3s−1), establishing that it was substantially above our minimum event threshold value of 2831 m3s−1 (100,000 ft3s−1) flow rate.

figure b

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Litwin, R.J., Smoot, J.P., Pavich, M.J. et al. Rates and Probable Causes of Freshwater Tidal Marsh Failure, Potomac River Estuary, Northern Virginia, USA. Wetlands 33, 1037–1061 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-013-0461-6

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