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The north European power system dispatch in 2010 and 2020

Expecting a large share of renewable energy sources

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Abstract

Prospectively, the European power system will need to incorporate a large share of power production from renewable energy sources. Likewise a significant change in the portfolio of thermal power plants and a strengthening of interconnections is expected. Moreover, the current process of integrating electricity markets will alter the system dispatch and have a significant impact on electricity prices as well. An operation optimisation model suited for hydro-thermal systems (EMPS), is applied to assess these changes. A 2010 and a 2020 scenario of the Northern European power system are developed and simulated. The scope of the analysis is on the increasing interaction of the Nordic and continental European power systems. Given nearly a doubling of interconnection capacity between the Nordic region and continental Europe up to 2020, the possibility of balancing the variable power production from renewable energy sources with Nordic hydro power will be enhanced. The simulations show reduced operation of thermal power plants, a higher variability of the Nordic hydro power production as well as an overall increased exchange among the areas. The impact of the level of wind power production on the system dispatch is illustrated. Moreover, electricity prices become more volatile, but their average decreases.

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Notes

  1. EFI’s Multi-area power-market simulator.

  2. During wet years with high inflow to the Nordic system, prices are low due to excessive hydro production (0 % percentile). In contrary, during dry years with low inflow, prices become high (100 % percentile).

  3. Outages of thermal power plants are taken into account by reducing the available thermal capacity in each individual week. The available capacity per week is based on published data at the European Energy Exchange [15].

Abbreviations

EMPS:

EFI’s Multi-area power-market simulator

ENSTO-E:

European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity

NTC:

Net transfer capacity

TSO:

Transmission system operator

SPP:

Solar power production

WPP:

Wind power production

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank for the WPP data and comments received from Tobias Aigner and the discussions done with Hossein Farahmand and Steve Völler. The conclusions and remaining errors are the authors’ responsibility. The presented was were done within the research project “Balancing Management in Multi-national Power Markets”, financed by the Norwegian Research Council, the Next Generation Infrastructure Foundation in the Netherlands and several further project partners and within the EU-FP7 project “Twenties”.

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Correspondence to Stefan Jaehnert.

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Jaehnert, S., Doorman, G.L. The north European power system dispatch in 2010 and 2020. Energy Syst 5, 123–143 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-013-0088-y

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