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Trend analysis of hydroclimatological variables in Urmia lake basin using hybrid wavelet Mann–Kendall and Şen tests

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Abstract

This paper investigates monthly, seasonal, and annual trends in rainfall, streamflow, temperature, and humidity amounts at Urmia lake (UL) basin and analyzes the interaction between these variables and UL’s water level fluctuation during the 1971–2013 period. Two new methods including nonparametric hybrid wavelet Mann–Kendall test and Şen’s methodology have been used to determine potential trends in the variables and their dominant periods. The results showed significant decreasing trends in the water level and streamflow series, moderate decreasing trend in the rainfall and relative humidity series, and increasing trends in the observed temperature data. The 8- , 12-month, and 2-year periods were detected as the dominant periods of the variables in monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales, respectively. The results from the interaction analysis revealed that the main factor influencing the water level at UL is decreasing trend in the streamflow series. Both the monthly series of UL’s water level and the streamflow series of the stations indicated two start points of significant decreasing trend in 1973 and 1998. Furthermore, a comparative analysis among the applied methods indicated a good agreement between the results of hybrid wavelet Mann–Kendall test and Şen’s trend analyzing method.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to three anonymous reviewers for their instructive comments on this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

    Vahid Nourani & Narges Azad

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Near East University, Nicosia, Mersin 10, Turkey

    Vahid Nourani

  3. Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Antalya Bilim University, Antalya, Turkey

    Ali Danandeh Mehr

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  1. Vahid Nourani
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  3. Narges Azad
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Correspondence to Ali Danandeh Mehr.

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Nourani, V., Danandeh Mehr, A. & Azad, N. Trend analysis of hydroclimatological variables in Urmia lake basin using hybrid wavelet Mann–Kendall and Şen tests. Environ Earth Sci 77, 207 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7390-x

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