Abstract
Background
Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing.
Purpose
A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory.
Method
This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel.
Results
Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions.
Conclusion
Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.
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Acknowledgments
Funding for this study was partially provided by National Cancer Institute (NCI) Grant CA11919, National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) Grant DA02112, and National Center for Research Resources (NCRR) Grant G20RR030883. NCI, NIDA, and NCRR played no role in the study design, collection, analysis or interpretation of the data, writing of the manuscript, or the decision to submit the paper for publication.
Ethical Standards
All procedures followed were in accordance with the ethical standards of the responsible committee on human experimentation (institutional and national) and with the Helsinki Declaration of 1975, as revised in 2000. Informed consent was obtained from all participants for being included in the study.
Conflict of Interest
All authors declare no conflicts of interest.
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Brick, L.A.D., Velicer, W.F., Redding, C.A. et al. Extending Theory-Based Quantitative Predictions to New Health Behaviors. Int.J. Behav. Med. 23, 123–134 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12529-015-9506-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12529-015-9506-y