Abstract
This study is aimed at investigating the various sub-daily extreme rainfall characteristics over India. The rainfall frequency percentage and skill score metrics were used to understand the relationship with the diurnal cycle of rainfall and the distribution of daytime (nighttime) extreme rainfall. Further, this study attempts to understand the synoptic circulations and mechanisms that govern the sub-daily extreme rainfall. The association with the Madden Julian Oscillation was quantified using logistic regression models. The results reveal that hourly extreme rainfall intensity was higher than the daily extreme rainfall during pre-monsoon and Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). The frequency percentage map of hourly rainfall events during different octets shows the mid- to late afternoon and late evening-early morning peaks (~ 60%) during ISM. This signifies that the sub-daily rainfall extremes were phase-locked with the diurnal cycle, notably during the ISM. The probability of detection analysis affirms that the daytime extremes were prominent over the land, and nocturnal extremes were occurring over coastal and oceanic regions. The investigation of synoptic circulations shows that the nocturnal extremes are stronger over the Central Indian regions and the west coast and Western Ghats regions, whereas the daytime extremes are stronger over the Southern Indian Peninsula. Indeed, mechanisms associated with the nocturnal extremes are governed by the air pump of the second kind, whereas the daytime extremes follow the inertial oscillation theory during the ISM. Overall, the present study enhances the knowledge of sub-daily extreme rainfall characteristics and has the practical implications in the seasonal to sub-seasonal predictions.
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The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
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Funding
NKV would like to acknowledge the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, for funding the research project (Grant Ref: ECR/2016/001896). Mr. P. C. Anandh would like to acknowledge the National Institute of Technology, Rourkela, for the financial support to carry out his research work.
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PC Anandh: methodology, writing original draft, editing, visualization, and formal analysis.
Naresh Krishna Vissa: conceptualization, supervision, formal analysis, writing, and review.
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Anandh, P.C., Vissa, N.K. Disentangling the statistical and synoptic characteristics of the sub-daily rainfall extremes over Indian sub-continent. Arab J Geosci 16, 97 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-11140-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-11140-z