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Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in Punjab under past, present and future climate change scenarios

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Abstract

Drought is a recurring natural hazard which causes damage to crop production, socio-economic and environmental conditions. The analysis and forecasting of drought is important for food security and sustainable crop production. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to characterize the meteorological drought in the three regions (North-east, Central and South-west) of Indian Punjab. Spatio-temporal variability in SPI was assessed during three time scenarios: past and present time (1971–2020), mid-century (2040–2060) and end-century (2075–2095). During 1971–2020, there was a significant increase in SPI during Kharif (summer) season in the three region of Indian Punjab. However, no significant variations in SPI were observed during annual and Rabi (winter) season. During mid-century, annual and Kharif season SPI is expected to increase in the North-east region under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but Rabi season SPI might decrease under RCP 2.6 in this region. In the Central region of Indian Punjab, a significant increase in annual SPI is expected under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, increase during Kharif season SPI under all the RCPs and decrease during Rabi season SPI under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0. A significant increase in annual and Kharif season SPI is expected under all the RCPs in South-west region and also increase in Rabi season SPI in this region under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5. During end-century, annual, Kharif and Rabi season SPI might increase under RCP 4.5 in the North-east region, but Kharif season SPI may decease under RCP 8.5 and Rabi season SPI under RCP 2.6. In the Central region of Indian Punjab, an increase in annual, Kharif and Rabi season SPI is expected under RCP 8.5 during end century and a significant decrease in Rabi season SPI under RCP 2.6. The spatial variations in SPI were determined using Inverse Distance Weight and large spatio-temporal variability in drought occurrence was observed under different time periods. These results suggest that increased uncertainty in rainfall during mid and end century may have adverse impacts on already over-exploited water resources in the Indian Punjab. The mapping of drought vulnerability in different regions of Indian Punjab may be helpful for policy makers to visualize its impact on crop production and formulating the mitigation strategies.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Climate Change & Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, India

    Usaka Bopche, Pavneet Kaur Kingra & Som Pal Singh

  2. Punjab Remote Sensing Centre, Ludhiana, India

    Raj Setia

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  1. Usaka Bopche
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  2. Pavneet Kaur Kingra
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  3. Raj Setia
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  4. Som Pal Singh
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Correspondence to Raj Setia.

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Responsible Editor: Zeynal Abiddin Erguler

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Bopche, U., Kingra, P.K., Setia, R. et al. Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in Punjab under past, present and future climate change scenarios. Arab J Geosci 15, 756 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10025-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10025-5

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