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Displacement and landslide forecast based on an improved version of Saito’s method together with the Verhulst-Grey model

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Abstract

Landslide forecasting is one of the emerging frontier topics in geotechnical engineering because of its need to deal with both abrupt change and complexity. Based on previous investigation and our experience with Saito’s method, an improved Saito curve was drawn with four stages corresponding to the displacement process of the position on the back of the landslide. The equations and curves of displacement, rate, and acceleration, along with the landslide time forecast model, were all based on the improved Saito method. The Verhulst-Grey model that is used to calculate the parameters of the landslide time forecast model was established on the basis of displacement monitoring data. Finally, the precision of the improved Saito method was verified using the landslide monitoring data of a mining slope and a natural slope. The results show that the improved Saito method is both reliable and economical to use for landslide forecasting.

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Acknowledgements

This research is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51574014 and No. 51534002) and National Key Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2015CB060200), Beijing Higher Education Young Elite Teacher Project (No. YETP0341).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of High-Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines (Ministry of Education of China), University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China

    Shengjun Miao, Xin Hao, Zimu Wang & Mingchun Liang

  2. School of Civil and Resource Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China

    Shengjun Miao, Xin Hao, Zimu Wang & Mingchun Liang

  3. School of Earth Sciences, Key Laboratory of Western China’s Mineral Resources of Gansu Province, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    Xuelian Guo

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  1. Shengjun Miao
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  2. Xin Hao
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  3. Xuelian Guo
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  4. Zimu Wang
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  5. Mingchun Liang
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Correspondence to Shengjun Miao.

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Miao, S., Hao, X., Guo, X. et al. Displacement and landslide forecast based on an improved version of Saito’s method together with the Verhulst-Grey model. Arab J Geosci 10, 53 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-017-2838-y

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