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Precipitation assessment of Indian summer monsoon based on CMIP5 climate simulations

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Abstract

Response of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to the historical data of 13 selected models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite has been investigated by considering the annual precipitation cycle, spatial distribution of rainfall, monsoon index, and domain along with wavelet and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The domain of interest focuses on an area between 5°N to 45°N and 45°E to 95°E. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and CMPA dataset are utilized for the period from 1955 to 2004. When compared with the given models, MIROC stands out to be the best suited dataset for monsoon season in Indian subcontinent. An ensemble of all the models has also been considered, and it produces good spatial and temporal distribution maps. However, it is not able to capture the peak values. MIROC has its limitations in capturing average monthly precipitation rate and rainfall distributions when compared to the reference dataset. The representation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall simulation by MIROC suggests it to be considered more consistent for the rainfall simulation projections in this highly complex climate system. This makes it more suitable and reliable for near-term to century rainfall projections in Indian subcontinent.

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Acknowledgments

This study acknowledges the support of the National Basic Research Program “973” of China (2012CB955200) and Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). We thank the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, and Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We are grateful to three anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions which helped to improve the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, NUIST, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Zaheer Ahmad Babar, Xie-fei Zhi & Ge Fei

  2. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Zaheer Ahmad Babar

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  1. Zaheer Ahmad Babar
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  2. Xie-fei Zhi
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Correspondence to Zaheer Ahmad Babar.

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Babar, Z.A., Zhi, Xf. & Fei, G. Precipitation assessment of Indian summer monsoon based on CMIP5 climate simulations. Arab J Geosci 8, 4379–4392 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-014-1518-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-014-1518-4

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