Skip to main content
Springer Nature Link
Log in

Combining CLUE-S and SWAT models to forecast land use change and non-point source pollution impact at a watershed scale in Liaoning Province, China

  • Published:
Chinese Geographical Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Non-point source (NPS) pollution has become a major source of water pollution. A combination of models would provide the necessary direction and approaches designed to control NPS pollution through land use planning. In this study, NPS pollution load was simulated in urban planning, historic trends and ecological protection land use scenarios based on the Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models applied to Hunhe-Taizi River Watershed, Liaoning Province, China. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were chosen as NPS pollution indices. The results of models validation showed that CLUE-S and SWAT models were suitable in the study area. NPS pollution mainly came from dry farmland, paddy, rural and urban areas. The spatial distribution of TN and TP exhibited the same trend in 57 sub-catchments. The TN and TP had the highest NPS pollution load in the western and central plains, which concentrated the urban area and farm land. The NPS pollution load would increase in the urban planning and historic trends scenarios, and would be even higher in the urban planning scenario. However, the NPS pollution load decreased in the ecological protection scenario. The differences observed in the three scenarios indicated that land use had a degree of impact on NPS pollution, which showed that scientific and ecologically sound construction could effectively reduce the NPS pollution load in a watershed. This study provides a scientific method for conducting NPS pollution research at the watershed scale, a scientific basis for non-point source pollution control, and a reference for related policy making.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Explore related subjects

Discover the latest articles and news from researchers in related subjects, suggested using machine learning.

References

  • Ahearn D S, Sheibley R W, Dahlgren R A et al., 2005. Land use and land cover influence on water quality in the last free-flowing river draining the western Sierra Nevada, California. Journal of Hydrology, 313(3–4): 234–247. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.038

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arhonditsis G, Tsirtsis G, Angelidis M O et al., 2000. Quantification of the effects of nonpoint nutrient sources to coastal marine eutrophication: Applications to a semi-enclosed gulf in the Mediterranean Sea. Ecological Modelling, 129(2–3): 209–227. doi: 10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00239-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnold J G, Srinivasan R, Muttiah R S et al., 1998. Large area hydrologic modelling and assessment. Part I: Model development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34(1): 73–89. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Behera S, Panda R K, 2006. Evaluation of management alternatives for an agricultural watershed in a sub-humid subtropical region using a physical process based model. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 113(1–4): 62–72. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2005.08.032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Castella J C, Verburg P H, 2007. Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land-use change in a mountain area of Vietnam. Ecological Modelling, 202(3–4): 410–420. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheng Shiying, 2001. Water environmental protection and counter measures of urban agglomeration in the central region of Liaoning Province. Water Resourse & Hydropower of Northeast China, 19(12): 39–41. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Cohen J A, 1960. Coefficient agreement for nominal data. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 2(1): 37–46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Department of Environmental Protection of Liaoning Province, 2011. Liaoning Province Environmental Bulletin in 2011. Shenyang: Department of Environmental Protection of Liaoning Province, 33–38.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gosain A K, Rao S, Srinivasan R et al., 2005. Return-flow assessment for irrigation command in the Palleru River Basin using SWAT model. Hydrological Processes, 19(3): 673–682. doi: 10.1002/hyp.5622

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gunes K, 2008. Point and nonpoint sources of nutrients to lakes—Ecotechnological measures and mitigation methodologies—Case study. Ecological Engineering, 34(2): 116–126. doi: 10.1016/j.ecoleng.2008.07.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hao F B, Zhang X S, Yang Z F, 2004. A distributed non-point source pollution model: Calibration and validation in the Yellow River Basin. Journal of Environmental Sciences, 16(4): 646–650.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hollis G E, 1975. The effect of urbanization on floods of different recurrence interval. Water Resources Research, 11(3): 431–435. doi: 10.1029/WR011i003p00431

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hundecha Y, Bárdossy A, 2004. Modeling of the effect of land use changes on the runoff generation of a river basin through parameter regionalization of a watershed model. Journal of Hydrology, 292(1–4): 281–295. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.01.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lai Y C, Yang C P, Hsieh C Y et al., 2011. Evaluation of non-point source pollution and river water quality using a multimedia two-model system. Journal of Hydrology, 409(3–4): 583–595. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.08.040

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lambin E F, Turner B L, Geist H J et al., 2001. The causes of land-use and land-cover change: Moving beyond the myths. Global Environmental Change, 11(4): 261–269. doi: 10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00007-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liaoning Statistics Bureau, 1988. Liaoning Statistical Yearbook 1987. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 246–248. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liaoning Statistics Bureau, 1997. Liaoning Statistical Yearbook 1996. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 136–143. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liaoning Statistics Bureau, 2001. Liaoning Statistical Yearbook 2000. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 308–312. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liaoning Statistics Bureau, 2004. Liaoning Statistical Yearbook 2003. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 128–135. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liaoning Statistics Bureau, 2005. Liaoning Statistical Yearbook 2004. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 368–482. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liaoning Statistics Bureau, 2010. Liaoning Statistical Yearbook 2009. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 287–298. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenschmidt K E, Fleischbein K, Baborowski M, 2007. Structural uncertainty in a river water quality modelling system. Ecological Modelling, 204(3–4): 289–300. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.01.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Miao, Hu Yuanman, Sun Fengyun et al., 2012. Application of land use model CLUE-S in the planning of central Liaoningurban agglomerations. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 31(2): 413–420. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Logsdon R A, Chaubey I, 2013. A quantitative approach to evaluating ecosystem services. Ecological Modelling, 257: 57–65. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.02.009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mapfumo E, Chanasyk D S, Willms W D, 2004. Simulating daily soil water under foothills fescue grazing with the soil and water assessment tool model (Alberta, Canada). Hydrological Processes, 18(15): 2787–2800. doi: 10.1002/hyp.1493

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Monserud R A, Leemans R, 1992. Comparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic. Ecological Modelling, 62(4): 275–293. doi: 10.1016/0304-3800(92)90003-W

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Næsset E, 1996. Use of the weighted Kappa coefficient in classification error assessment of thematic maps. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 10(5): 591–603. doi: 10.1080/02693799608902099

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nash J E, Sutcliffe J V, 1970. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I—A discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology, 10(3): 282–290. doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oeurng C, Sauvage S, Sánchez-Pérez J M, 2011. Assessment of hydrology, sediment and particulate organic carbon yield in a large agricultural catchment using the SWAT model. Journal of Hydrology, 401(3–4): 145–153. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.017

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ouyang W, Huang H, Hao F et al., 2013. Synergistic impacts of land-use change and soil property variation on non-point source nitrogen pollution in a freeze-thaw area. Journal of Hydrology, 495: 126–134. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.04.037

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ouyang W, Wang X, Hao F et al., 2009. Temporal-spatial dynamics of vegetation variation on non-point source nutrient pollution. Ecological Modelling, 220(20): 2702–2713. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.06.039

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pandey V K, Panda S N, Sudhakar S, 2005. Modelling of an Agricultural Watershed using Remote Sensing and a Geographic Information System. Biosystems Engineering, 90(3): 331–347. doi: 10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2004.10.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pontius R G, Schneider L C, 2001. Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 85(1–3): 239–248. doi: 10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00187-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robinson T H, Leydecker A, Keller A A et al., 2005. Steps towards modeling nutrient export in coastal Californian streams with a Mediterranean climate. Agricultural Water Management, 77(1–3): 144–158. doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2004.09.024

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sadeghi S H R, Jalili K, Nikkami D, 2009. Land use optimization in watershed scale. Land Use Policy, 26(2): 186–193. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.02.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seppelt R, Voinov A, 2002. Optimization methodology for land use patterns using spatially explicit landscape models. Ecological Modelling, 151(2–3): 125–142. doi: 10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00455-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Setegn S G, Srinivasan R, Dargahi B et al., 2009. Spatial delineation of soil erosion vulnerability in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrological Processes, 23(26): 3738–3750. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7476

    Google Scholar 

  • Shen Z, Chen L, Hong Q, et al., 2013. Vertical variation of nonpoint source pollutants in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. PLoS ONE, 8(8): e71194. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0071194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun H, Cornish P S, 2005. Estimating shallow groundwater recharge in the headwaters of the Liverpool Plains using SWAT. Hydrological Processes, 19(3): 795–807. doi: 10.1002/hyp.5617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Geological Survey, 1999. The Quality of Our Nation’s Waters—Nutrients and Pesticides: U.S. Geological Survey Cir cular, 1225–1282.

    Google Scholar 

  • Verburg P H, Schot P P, Dijst M J et al., 2004. Land use change modelling: Current practice and research priorities. GeoJournal, 61(4): 309–324. doi: 10.1007/s10708-004-4946-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg P H, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A et al., 2002. Modelingthe spatial dynamics of regional land use: The CLUE-S model. Environmental Management, 30(3): 391–405. doi: 10.1007/s00267-002-2630-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Xia, Liu Haipeng, Gao Qiong, 2008. Dynamic simulation on the optimal patterns of land use change for the farming-past or zone in North China. Progress in Geography, 27(3): 80–85. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang P, Liu Y, Pan Y et al., 2013. Land use pattern optimization based on CLUE-S and SWAT models for agricultural non-point source pollution control. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 58(3–4): 588–595. doi: 10.1016/j.mcm.2011.10.061

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Yongmin, Zhao Shidong, Zhang Kebin, 2003. Simulation of changes in spatial pattern of land use in Horqin desert and its outer area. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 25(3): 68–73. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu Junjun, Hu Yuanman, Liu Miao et al., 2011. Landscape change and its driving forces in Hun-Tai River Basin. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 30(1): 112–118. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Forest and Soil Ecology, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, 110164, China

    Miao Liu, Chunlin Li, Yuanman Hu, Fengyun Sun, Yanyan Xu & Tan Chen

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Chunlin Li, Fengyun Sun, Yanyan Xu & Tan Chen

Authors
  1. Miao Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  2. Chunlin Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yuanman Hu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  4. Fengyun Sun
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  5. Yanyan Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  6. Tan Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yuanman Hu.

Additional information

Foundation item: Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41171155, 40801069), National Science and Technology Major Project of China: Water Pollution Control and Governance (No. 2012ZX07505-003)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Liu, M., Li, C., Hu, Y. et al. Combining CLUE-S and SWAT models to forecast land use change and non-point source pollution impact at a watershed scale in Liaoning Province, China. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 24, 540–550 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-014-0661-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-014-0661-x

Keywords