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Estimation of land production and its response to cultivated land conversion in North China Plain

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Abstract

Food safety and its related influencing factors in China are the hot research topics currently, and cultivated land conversion is one of the significant factors influencing food safety in China. Taking the North China Plain as the study area, this paper examines the changes of cultivated land area using satellite images, estimates land productivity from 1985 to 2005 using the model of Estimation System for Land Productivity (ESLP), and analyzes the impact of cultivated land conversion on the land production. Compared with the grain yield data from statistical yearbooks, the results indicate that ESLP model is an effective tool for estimating land productivity. Land productivity in the North China Plain showed a slight decreasing trend from 1985 to 2005, spatially, increased from the north to the south gradually, and the net changes varied in different areas. Cultivated land area recorded a marginal decrease of 8.0 × 105 ha, mainly converted to other land uses. Cultivated land conversion had more significant negative impacts on land production than land productivity did. Land production decreased by about 6.48 × 106 t caused by cultivated land conversion between 1985 and 2005, accounting for 91.9% of the total land production reduction. Although the land productivity increased in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces, it can not offset the overall adverse effects caused by cultivated land conversion. Therefore, there are significant meanings to control the cultivated land conversion and improve the land productivity for ensuring the land production in the North China Plain.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Qun’ou Jiang, Xiangzheng Deng & Shujin He

  2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Qun’ou Jiang

  3. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Xiangzheng Deng

  4. State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Jinyan Zhan

Authors
  1. Qun’ou Jiang
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  2. Xiangzheng Deng
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  3. Jinyan Zhan
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  4. Shujin He
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Correspondence to Xiangzheng Deng.

Additional information

Foundation item: Under the auspices of Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (No. 2010CB950904), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 70503025, 40801231), Key Direction in Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-305-2)

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Jiang, Q., Deng, X., Zhan, J. et al. Estimation of land production and its response to cultivated land conversion in North China Plain. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 21, 685–694 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-011-0479-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-011-0479-8

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