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Migration for survival under natural disasters: A reluctant and passive choice for agriculturalists in historical China

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Abstract

This study quantitatively investigates the long-term dynamics of the association between natural disasters and the migration of agriculturists in historical China. Population pressure is also studied because migration is a population density-dependent phenomenon. This study has adopted correlation analysis, multivariate linear/Poisson regression analyses, and Granger causality analysis to verify the linkages of natural disaster-migration and population-migration in historical China by collecting updated datasets. This study is the first attempt to reveal that the duration effects of natural disasters on the migration of agriculturalists are short-term and almost instantaneous. Although the agrarian society has a low buffering capacity, the effects of natural disasters within a short-term scale could be relieved to some extent. However, population pressure can push migration on a long-term scale despite its limited forcefulness.

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Acknowledgements

I deeply thank the generous support from Early Career Scheme funded by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (Grant No. 28300717), Internal Research Grant (Grant No. RG68/2016-2017), Start-up Research Grant (Grant No. RG1/2016-2017R), Dean’s Research Output Prize (Grant No. 04233-SSC ROP-3) from the Education University of Hong Kong and Rachel Carson Fellowship 2017–2018.

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  1. Department of Social Sciences, the Education University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Qing Pei

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Correspondence to Qing Pei.

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Pei, Q. Migration for survival under natural disasters: A reluctant and passive choice for agriculturalists in historical China. Sci. China Earth Sci. 60, 2089–2096 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-017-9080-6

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