Abstract
The global surge in photovoltaic (PV) installations and the resulting increase in PV waste are a growing concern. The aims of this study include predicting the volume of photovoltaic waste in Canada. The forecasting of solar waste volume employed linear regression, 2nd order polynomial regression, and power regression models. The study’s results indicate that Canada is on the verge of facing challenges related to the end-of-life treatment of photovoltaic modules in the coming years due to the significant growth in PV capacity over recent decades. According to the analysis, for early loss, the PV waste volume in 2045 could range from 180,000 MT to 270,000 MT, and for regular loss, it could range from 160,000 MT to 180,000 MT. This research is anticipated to assist relevant government agencies in assessing the prospective volume of PV waste to establish a sustainable and resilient PV waste management plan for Canada. These findings may shed light on the feasibility of a circular economy and advocate for the involvement of all stakeholders in a carefully coordinated strategy to mitigate potential environmental impacts and optimize resource utilization efficiency.
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The datasets used and/or analyzed are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Monasib Romel contributed to the conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, investigation, data curation, result visualization, and preparing the initial draft. Golam Kabir and Kelvin Tsun Wai Ng contributed to the conceptualization, data curation, model validation, result visualization, drafting the final document, and project supervision.
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Appendix
Appendix
Table
Table
Table
Fig.
Weight-to-power ratio ((IRENA 2016)
Fig.
Weibull curve with two shape factors by Weibull (1951)
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Romel, M., Kabir, G. & Ng, K.T.W. Prediction of photovoltaic waste generation in Canada using regression-based model. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 8650–8665 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31628-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31628-9