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Exploring the effects of climate change and government stability on internal conflicts: evidence from selected sub-Saharan African countries

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Abstract

Climate change has been linked to water scarcity, land degradation, and food insecurity, exacerbating existing tensions and creating new conflicts in countries with weak political institutions. Despite the critical need for effective conflict management and climate adaptation measures, prior studies failed to emphasize the role climate change plays in civil clashes in conflict-affected countries. In this research, we undertake a comprehensive investigation of the effects of climate change and government stability on internal conflicts in 14 selected SSA nations between 1996 and 2016. The study embraces contemporary heterogeneous panel techniques to address heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence issues that usually appear in panel data estimates. We employed second-generation unit root tests, such as CADF and CIPS, to determine the order of integration of the variables. In addition, Pedroni and Westerlund cointegration tests confirmed the long-run relationship among the variables. Although temperatures were insignificant, the long-run results of the pooled mean group (PMG) approach suggested that civil conflicts decline when precipitation increases. In addition, the outcomes indicate that environmental degradation and population growth are long-run aggravators of social unrest. The short-run results suggest that rising temperatures exacerbate civil conflicts in the selected SSA countries. However, the study found that government stability lessens internal conflicts in the short run, but not in the long run. The DOLS technique validated the long-run outcomes of the PMG technique. Based on the findings of the study, conflict-prone SSA countries should integrate climate change adaptation and conflict prevention strategies, implement sustainable water resource management practices, and endorse climate-related conflict resolution.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the author on reasonable request.

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Funding

This research is supported by SIMAD University, Somalia (grant number: SU-PG-2022-064).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Climate and Environment, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, Somalia

    Abdikafi Hassan Abdi & Mohamed Okash Sugow

  2. Faculty of Economics, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, Somalia

    Abdikafi Hassan Abdi & Abdinur Ali Mohamed

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  1. Abdikafi Hassan Abdi
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  2. Abdinur Ali Mohamed
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  3. Mohamed Okash Sugow
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Contributions

AHA handled the study’s conception, design, development, data collection, analysis, interpretation, and writing of the first draft and reviewed and edited the entire manuscript. AAM wrote some parts of the introduction and the literature review. MOS wrote the conclusion, and policy implications.

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Correspondence to Abdikafi Hassan Abdi.

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Abdi, .H., Mohamed, A.A. & Sugow, M.O. Exploring the effects of climate change and government stability on internal conflicts: evidence from selected sub-Saharan African countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 118468–118482 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30574-w

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