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Future prediction of water balance using the SWAT and CA-Markov model using INMCM5 climate projections: a case study of the Silwani watershed (Jharkhand), India

  • Resilient and Sustainable Water Management in Agriculture
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Abstract

The aim of this research was to simulate the future water balance of the Silwani watershed, Jharkhand, India, under the combined effect of land use and climate change based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov Chain model. The future climate prediction was done based on daily bias-corrected datasets of the INMCM5 climate model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 (SSP585), which represent the fossil fuel development of the world. After a successful model run, water balance components like surface runoff, groundwater contribution to stream flow, and ET were simulated. The anticipated change in land use/land cover (LULC) between 2020 and 2030 reflects a slight increase (3.9 mm) in groundwater contribution to stream flow while slight decrease in surface runoff (4.8 mm). The result of this research work helps the planners to plan any similar watershed for future conservation.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed throughout the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Geospatial Technologies, Sam Higginbottom University of Agriculture, Technology and Sciences, Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, India

    Mukesh Kumar & Deepak Lal

  2. Rural Development Department, Government of Jharkhand, Jharkhand State Watershed Mission, Ranchi, Jharkhand, India

    Lakhan Lal Mahato

  3. Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, Sam Higginbottom University of Agriculture, Technology and Sciences, Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, India

    Shakti Suryavanshi

  4. K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, IIDS, Nehru Science Centre, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, India

    Sudhir Kumar Singh

  5. Department of Geo-Informatics, Pandit Raghunath Murmu Smriti Mahavidyalaya, Bankura University, Bankura, West Bengal, India

    Arnab Kundu

  6. Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, West Bengal, India

    Dipanwita Dutta

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  1. Mukesh Kumar
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Contributions

Mukesh Kumar: conceptualization; methodology; validation; formal analysis; investigation; resources; data curation; writing, original draft preparation; visualization. Lakhan Lal Mahato: formal analysis; investigation; resources; data curation; writing; visualization. Shakti Suryavanshi: conceptualization; software; formal analysis; review and editing. Sudhir Kumar Singh: software; review and editing. Arnab Kundu: visualization; review and editing. Dipanwita Dutta: visualization; review and editing. Deepak Lal: review and editing. All authors have read and approved the content of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shakti Suryavanshi.

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Appendix I

Appendix I

Classification agreement/disagreement

According to ability to specify accurately quantity and allocation

Information of Quantity

Information of Allocation

No[n]

Medium[m]

Perfect[p]

Perfect[P(x)]

P(n) = 0.5555

P(m) = 0.9231

P(p) = 1.0000

PerfectStratum[K(x)]

K(n) = 0.5595

K(m) = 0.9231

K(p) = 1.0000

MediumGrid[M(x)]

M(n) = 0.4624

M(m) = 0.8349

M(p) = 0.8321

MediumStratum[H(x)]

H(n) = 0.1429

H(m) = 0.3040

H(p) = 0.2992

No[N(x)]

N(n) = 0.1429

N(m) = 0.3040

N(p) = 0.2992

Agreement Chance = 0.1429

Agreement Quantity = 0.1611

Agreement Strata = 0.0000

Agreement Grid cell = 0.5309

Disagree Gridcell = 0.0882

Disagree Strata = 0.0000

Disagree Quantity = 0.0769

Kno = 0.8074

Klocation = 0.8575

Klocation Strata = 0.8575

Kstandard = 0.7628

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Kumar, M., Mahato, L.L., Suryavanshi, S. et al. Future prediction of water balance using the SWAT and CA-Markov model using INMCM5 climate projections: a case study of the Silwani watershed (Jharkhand), India. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 54311–54324 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27547-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27547-4

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