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Dynamic evaluation and prediction of the ecological environment quality of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains

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Abstract

In order to timely determine the dynamic changes of the ecological environment quality and future development laws of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, combined with the actual situation of the urban agglomeration, 11 indicators were selected from the three aspects of natural ecology, social ecology, and economic ecology. To reduce the dimensions of the indicators, principal component analysis, coefficient of variation, and analytic hierarchy process were used based on RS and GIS technology methods, and the ecological environmental quality (EQI) from 2000 to 2018 was dynamically evaluated. Further, the CA–Markov model was introduced to simulate the development status in 2026 for predictive purposes. The main results are as follows: the overall ecological environment of the area exhibited a gradually improving distribution change from southwest to northeast; the proportion of ecological environment classification exhibited a gradually decreasing change pattern; the spatial differentiation of ecological environment quality exhibited a significant spatial positive correlation; from the influencing factors, an observation can be made that natural ecological factors were highly significant; the prediction accuracy verification revealed that the CA–Markov model was suitable for the prediction of the ecological environment quality in the region and had high accuracy; and the comprehensive regional ecological environment quality indexes were 5.7392, 6.1856, and 6.4366, respectively, while the forecasted value for 2026 was predicted to be 6.6285, indicating that the overall ecological environment quality of the region will improve and develop well. The present research results reveal the law of dynamic changes and future development of the ecological environment quality in the region, which can be used as a theoretical reference for the formulation of ecological environmental protection measures.

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The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to the hardworking editors and valuable comments from reviewers.

Funding

This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41661036), National Natural Science Foundation of China—Xinjiang Joint Fund (Grant No. U1603241), and Xinjiang local government support for overseas study group projects (No. 117/40299006).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, Xinjiang, China

    Yan Yibo, Chai Ziyuan, Zibibula Simayi & Yang Shengtian

  2. Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environmental Modelling for General Universities, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, Xinjiang, China

    Yan Yibo, Chai Ziyuan, Zibibula Simayi & Yang Shengtian

  3. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Ministry of Education Laboratory, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, Xinjiang, China

    Yan Yibo, Chai Ziyuan, Zibibula Simayi & Yang Shengtian

  4. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Henan, 450045, China

    Yan Haobo

  5. Sino-French Joint College of Ningbo University, Ningbo, 200231, Zhejiang, China

    Yang Xiaodong

  6. School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Yang Shengtian

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  1. Yan Yibo
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Contributions

Zibibula·Simayi: funding acquisition. Yibo Yan: methodology, formal analysis, software, data curation, writing—original draft, visualization. Ziyuan Chai: conceptualization, project administration. Haobo Yan: writing—review and editing, major revise. Xiaodong Yang: writing—review and editing. Shengtian Yang: supervision.

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Correspondence to Zibibula Simayi.

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Yibo, Y., Ziyuan, C., Simayi, Z. et al. Dynamic evaluation and prediction of the ecological environment quality of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 25817–25835 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23794-z

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