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Carbon emission structure decomposition analysis of manufacturing industry from the perspective of input-output subsystem: a case study of China

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Abstract

In China, manufacturing is the industry that consumes the most energy and emits the most carbon, and the effect of emission reduction on the process of reaching carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is decisive. The existing research on the driving factors of manufacturing carbon emissions has not analyzed the specific structural characteristics of manufacturing carbon emissions from the perspective of industrial relevance, and little attention has been paid to the discussion of carbon emission reduction paths of different manufacturing sectors from the perspective of final demand. This study examines the direct carbon emissions and carbon emissions from final demand in China’s manufacturing sector, and decomposes the carbon emissions from final demand into six distinct components using input-output analysis. In addition, this study examines the carbon emission path in manufacturing production activities, as well as the carbon emission reduction potential and scenario prediction of the factors influencing manufacturing carbon emissions. In 2018, the direct carbon emissions and carbon emissions from final demand were approximately 4.61 billion tons and 3.50 billion tons, respectively. Meanwhile, direct and indirect spillovers accounted for 62.1% and 23.1% of carbon emissions from final demand, respectively. Using the carbon emission transfer route map of the manufacturing industry, the direction and amount of carbon emission transfer from various energy sources can be accurately determined. The CR scenario predicts that the manufacturing industry will reach its carbon peak between 2025 and 2030, with a corresponding peak between 4.02 and 4.06 billion tons, and that carbon emissions in 2060 will be 40% lower than in 2018.

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Funding

This research was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2019XKQYMS83).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China

    Manzhi Liu, Jixin Wen, Yadi Meng, Xiaotao Yang, Jinfeng Wang, Jixin Wu & Huayang Chen

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  1. Manzhi Liu
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  2. Jixin Wen
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  3. Yadi Meng
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Contributions

Manzhi Liu: conceptualization, funding acquisition, supervision, project administration, methodology, investigation, formal analysis, writing original draft, revision. Jixin Wen: methodology, investigation, writing original draft, formal analysis, data curation, software, revision. Yadi Meng: project administration, data curation, writing original draft, formal analysis. Xiaotao Yang: formal analysis, software, writing original draft, revision. Jinfeng Wang: investigation, policy collection. Jixin Wu: investigation, data curation. Huayang Chen: investigation, illustration.

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Correspondence to Manzhi Liu.

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Highlights

1. The carbon emission of manufacturing industry is divided into six subsystems.

2. The correlation effect between manufacturing sectors cannot be ignored.

3. The spillover components account for the largest proportion of carbon emissions.

4. The carbon emission transmission path map is helpful to formulate policies.

5. The manufacturing sector needs more targeted carbon emission reduction policies.

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Liu, M., Wen, J., Meng, Y. et al. Carbon emission structure decomposition analysis of manufacturing industry from the perspective of input-output subsystem: a case study of China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 19012–19029 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23334-9

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