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Revisiting the EKC hypothesis by assessing the complementarities between fiscal, monetary, and environmental development policies in China

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Abstract

Recently, China has declared its national objective of becoming carbon neutral by 2060. Hence, mitigating carbon dioxide emissions has become an important agenda of the Chinese government. Against this backdrop, this paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of pursuing expansionary fiscal and monetary policies on China’s carbon dioxide emission figures by using annual frequency data from 1980 to 2018. Accordingly, this study considers the levels of government expenditure and broad money supply as fiscal and monetary policy instruments, respectively. Besides accounting for structural break concerns in the data, the findings from the empirical analysis reveal that there are long-run associations between carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, and fiscal and monetary expansion in China. Moreover, the results also show that in both the short- and long-run expansionary fiscal policy trigger higher carbon dioxide emissions while expansionary monetary policy inhibits the carbon dioxide emission figures of China. Furthermore, the results invalidate the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis since the relationship between China's economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions is evidenced to portray an N-shape. In line with these findings, it is recommended that China achieve environmentally sustainable economic growth by aligning the national fiscal and monetary policies with the 2060 carbon-neutrality objective.

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Fig. 1

Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank 2021)

Fig. 2
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Data availability

All the data sources are duly referred in the study and can be downloaded free of charge.

Notes

  1. For an in-depth understanding of the principles of the ECK hypothesis, see Apergis and Ozturk (2015), Paramati et al. (2018), Murshed and Dao (2020), Hamid et al. (2021), and Wang et al. (2022).

  2. BRICS denotes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

  3. For brevity, the optimal lag selection output is not reported but can be made available upon request.

  4. The identified structural breakpoint locations for the dependent variable lnCO2 are used to compute dummy variables that are included within the regression model.

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Funding

This research work is funded by ILMA University under the ILMA Research Publication Grant.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, People’s Republic of China

    Ayoub Zeraibi

  2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, People’s Republic of China

    Zahoor Ahmed

  3. Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Management Sciences, ILMA University, Karachi, Pakistan

    Zahoor Ahmed

  4. School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China

    Khurram Shehzad

  5. School of Business and Economics, North South University, Dhaka-1229, Bangladesh

    Muntasir Murshed

  6. Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), E-17 Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka-1207, Bangladesh

    Muntasir Murshed

  7. Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Lagos, Akoka, Nigeria

    Solomon Prince Nathaniel

  8. School of Foundation, Lagos State University, Badagry, Nigeria

    Solomon Prince Nathaniel

  9. Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, 173, Alkharj, 11942, Saudi Arabia

    Haider Mahmood

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  5. Solomon Prince Nathaniel
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Contributions

AZ: Conceptualization; methodology; software; writing and original formal analysis; data curation. ZA: Writing original manuscript; writing reviewing and editing. KS: Draft preparation; writing review and editing; visualization. MM: Writing original manuscript; literature review; writing reviewing and editing. SPN: writing, reviewing and editing. HM: Writing literature review, analysis, and conclusion.

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Correspondence to Muntasir Murshed.

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Zeraibi, A., Ahmed, Z., Shehzad, K. et al. Revisiting the EKC hypothesis by assessing the complementarities between fiscal, monetary, and environmental development policies in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 23545–23560 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17288-7

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