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Quantification of Expected Changes in Peak Flow Quantiles in Climate Change by Combining Continuous Hydrological Modelling with the Modified Curve Number Method

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Abstract

Climate projections point to modifications in the magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in the future. However, robust methodologies to quantify how climate change will modify the catchment response in flood events are required. Continuous hydrological modelling usually smooth magnitudes of extreme events. This paper proposes a methodology to improve the assessment of flood changes in the future driven by climate change. Climate change projections of the EURO-CORDEX programme obtained under the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) supplied are used. Four catchments located on the Douro River Basin have been considered as case studies. Precipitation and temperature projections have been bias corrected to reduce errors with observations in the control period (1971–2004). The HBV continuous hydrological simulation model has been used to simulate the soil moisture content on the day of occurrence of the maximum annual rainfalls in the four catchments. The modified curve number method has been utilized to obtain the changes expected in the future in flood magnitudes, considering the initial soil moisture contents estimated with the HBV model and the expected changes in annual maximum rainfalls. The methodology has been applied to the control period (1971–2004) to check the validity of the process. Then, the methodology has been applied to the future period (2011–2095), to quantify the changes expected in the future in flood magnitudes under climate change conditions. The combined use of the HBV continuous hydrological simulation with the modified curve number method improves the results provided by the HBV model. The proposed methodology allows a better characterization of the response of catchments in flood events. It also considers the expected variation in the antecedent moisture content in catchments in the future, driven by increasing temperatures and decreasing mean annual precipitations in the future. The results show that flood quantiles will increase in three of the four catchments considered.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the Spanish Centre of Hydrographic Studies of CEDEX, the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and the CORDEX initiative, especially the EURO-CORDEX project, for providing climate and hydrological data used in this paper. The authors also acknowledge that this study was partially supported by the projects CGL2014-52570-R ‘Impact of climate change on the bivariate flood frequency curve’ funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and PID2019-107027RB-I00 ‘SAFERDAMS: Assessment of the impact of climate change on hydrological dam safety’ funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Research.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering: Hydraulic, Energy and Environment, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

    E. Soriano, L. Mediero & C. Garijo

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  1. E. Soriano
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Correspondence to E. Soriano.

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Soriano, E., Mediero, L. & Garijo, C. Quantification of Expected Changes in Peak Flow Quantiles in Climate Change by Combining Continuous Hydrological Modelling with the Modified Curve Number Method. Water Resour Manage 34, 4381–4397 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02670-w

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