Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Assessment of Two Different Methods in Predicting Hydrological Drought from the Perspective of Water Demand

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The traditional methodologies to determine hydrologic drought use standardized drought indexes, which do not express a drought’s severity in terms of the volume deficit and do not consider water demand as a component of its calculation. To overcome these disadvantages, this work presents a method for the assessment of hydrological drought that determines the volume of water below its demand. A drought can be characterized by its duration, severity and magnitude, using the Threshold Level Method. Complementarily, the method for the assessment of hydrological drought developed by Araújo and Bronstert (2016) was used to compare the characteristics of drought events in the same reservoirs. For this purpose, the droughts that occurred between 1997 and 2015 were studied in two reservoirs in the Piranhas-Açu River basin (Brazil). For both methodologies, the results showed that the reservoir with a higher storage capacity is more efficient and, thus, less susceptible to drought than the smaller. It was found that the basic difference between the two approaches is the time analysis of drought events: while the Threshold Level Method makes it possible to study what occurred in the past to diagnose and plan the use of water in the future, the other method enables the assessment of current conditions to anticipate the start of a hydrologic drought. It is suggested that the two methodologies presented can be used simultaneously by water resource managers to enable a more comprehensive analysis of drought events in the basin.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • ANA (2015) Agência Nacional de Águas. Plano de recursos hídricos da bacia hidrográfica do rio Piranhas-Açu. Resumo Executivo/Agência Nacional de Águas. ANA, Brasília

  • ANA (2013) Elaboração do Plano de Recursos Hídricos da Bacia do Rio Piranhas-Açu. Relatório Parcial. RP-03-Diagnóstico da Bacia do Rio Piranhas-Açu

  • ANA (2016) Outorgas emitidas pela ANA. http://www2.ana.gov.br/Paginas/institucional/SobreAna/uorgs/sof/geout.aspx) (Accessed in 01 Feb. 2016)

  • Andreadis KM, Clark EA, Wood AW, Hamlet A, Lattenmaier DP (2005) Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States. J Hydrometeorol 6:985–1001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Araújo JC, Bronstert A (2016) A method to assess hydrological drought in semi-arid environments and its application to the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil. Water Int 41(2):213–230. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2015.1113077

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonacci O (1993) Hydrological identification of drought. Hydrol Process 7:249–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clausen B, Pearson CP (1995) Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum streamflow drought. J Hydrol 173:111–130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen YD, Zhang Q, Xiao M, Singh VP (2013) Evaluation of risk of hydrological drought by the trivariate Plackett copula in the East River basin (China). Nat Hazards 68:529–547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0628-8

  • Fleig AK, Tallaksen LM, Hisdal H, Demuth S (2006) A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 10:535–552

  • Hisdal H, Stahl K, Tallaksen LM, Demuth S (2001) Have streamflow droughts in Europe become more severe or frequent. Int J Climatol 21:317–333. https://doi.org/10.1002./joc.619

  • Kjeldsen TR, Lundorf A, Rosbjerg D (2000) Use of a two-component exponential distribution in partial duration modelling of hydrological droughts in Zimbabwean rivers. Hydrol Sci J 45(2):285–298. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660009492325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lopes JEG, Braga BPF, Conejo JGL (1982) SMAP: a simplified hydrological model, applied modelling in catchment hydrology. Ed. V. P. Singh: Water Resources Publications

  • Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391:202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neves JA, Melo SB, Sampaio EVSB (2010) Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária do Rio Grande do Norte. Análise Pluviométrica do Rio Grande do Norte - Período: 196–2009. EMPARN, Natal

    Google Scholar 

  • Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought, Research Paper n. 45. Weather Bureau, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Pandey RP, Mishra SK, Singh R, Ramasastri KS (2008) Streamflow drought severity analysis of Betwa river system (India). Water Resour Manag 22:1127–1141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-007-9216-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rad AM, Ghahraman B, Khalili D, Ghahremani Z, Ardakani SA (2017) Integrated meteorological and hydrological drought model: a management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions. Adv Water Resour 107:336–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.07.007

  • Scanlon BR, Keese KE, Flint AL, Flint LE, Gaye CB, Edmunds WM, Simmers I (2006) Global synthesis of groundwater recharge in semiarid and arid regions. Hydrol Process 20:3335–3370. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shafer BA, Dezman LE (1982) Development of a Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas. In: Proceedings Western Snow Conference, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, pp. 164–175

  • Sheffield J, Wood EF (2011) Drought: Past problems and future scenarios. Taylor and Francis. 234 p. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781849775250

  • Shiau JT, Shen HW (2001) Recurrence analysis of hydrologic droughts of differing severity. J Water Resour Plan Manag 127(1):30–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stahl K (2001) Hydrological drought – a study across Europe. Thesis, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg

  • Sung JH, Chung ES (2014) Development of streamflow drought severity-duration-frequency curves using the threshold level method. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:3341–3351. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3341-2014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tallaksen LM, Madsen H, Clausen B (1997) On the definition and modelling of streamflow drought duration and deficit volume. Hydrol Sci J 42:15–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669709492003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tu X, Singh VP, Chen X, Ma M, Zhang Q, Zhao Y (2015) Uncertainty and variability in bivariate modeling of hydrological droughts. Stoch Env Res Risk A. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1185-3

  • Van Huijgevoort MHJ, Van Lanen HAJ, Teuling AJ, Uijlenhoet R (2014) Identification of changes in hydrological drought characteristics from a multi-GCM driven ensemble constrained by observed discharge. J Hydrol 512:421–434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Loon AF (2015) Hydrological drought explained. WIREs Water 2:359–392. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1085

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Loon AF, Laaha G (2015) Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics. J Hydrol. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.059

  • Van Loon AF, Ploum SW, Parajka J, Fleig AK, Garnier E, Laaha G, Van Lanen HAJ (2014) Hydrological drought typology: temperature-related drought types and associated societal impacts. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 11:10465–10514. https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-10465-2014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wanders N, Wada Y (2015) Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought. J Hydrol 526:208–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.047

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite DA, Glantz MH (1985) Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int 10:111–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wong WK, Beldring S, Engen-Skaugen T, Haddeland I, Hisdal H (2011) Climate change effects on spatiotemporal patterns of hydroclimatological summer droughts in Norway. J Hydrometeorol 12:1205–1220. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1357.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang W (2010) Drought analysis under climate change by application of drought indices and copulas. Thesis, Portland State University

  • Yevjevich V (1967) An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts. Hydrol Pap 23, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA

  • Zelenhasic E, Salvai A (1987) A method of streamflow drought analysis. Water Resour Res 23(1):156–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu Y, Wang W, Singh VP, Liu Y (2016) Combined use of meteorological drought indices at multi-time scales for improving hydrological drought detection. Sci Total Environ 571:1058–1068. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.096

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES) – Finance Code 001.

The authors also thank the Agricultural Research Corporation of Rio Grande do Norte State (Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária do Rio Grande do Norte, EMPARN) for providing the rainfall time series data, and the Environment and Water Resources Company (Secretaria de Estado do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Hídricos, SEMARH-RN) for providing the monthly monitoring records of the water level stored in the dam studied.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate Program in Sanitary Engineering, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (PPgES/UFRN), UFRN/CT/LARHISA, Cx. Postal 1524, Campus Universitário Lagoa Nova, Natal, RN, CEP: 59072-970, Brazil

    Giovana Cristina Santos de Medeiros

  2. Civil Engineering Department, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), UFRN/CT/LARHISA, Cx. Postal 1524, Campus Universitário Lagoa Nova, Natal, RN, CEP: 59072-970, Brazil

    Adelena Gonçalves Maia

  3. Civil Engineering Department, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), UFRN/CT/LARHISA, Cx. Postal 1524, Campus Universitário Lagoa Nova, Natal, RN, CEP: 9072-970, Brazil

    Joana Darc Freire de Medeiros

Authors
  1. Giovana Cristina Santos de Medeiros
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Adelena Gonçalves Maia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Joana Darc Freire de Medeiros
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Adelena Gonçalves Maia.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

de Medeiros, G.C.S., Maia, A.G. & de Medeiros, J.D.F. Assessment of Two Different Methods in Predicting Hydrological Drought from the Perspective of Water Demand. Water Resour Manage 33, 1851–1865 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02218-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02218-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation