Abstract
Limited by inflow forecasting methods, the forecasting results are so unreliable that we have to take their uncertainty and risk into account when incorporating stochastic inflow into reservoir operation. Especially in the electricity market, punishment often happens when the hydropower station does not perform as planned. Therefore, focusing on the risk of power generation, a benefit and risk balance optimization model (BRM) which takes stochastic inflow as the major risk factor is proposed for stochastic hydropower scheduling. The mean-variance theory is firstly introduced into the optimal dispatching of hydropower station, and a variational risk coefficient is employed to give service to managers’ subjective preferences. Then, the multi-period stochastic inflow is simulated by multi-layer scenario tree. Moreover, a specific scenario reduction and reconstruction method is put forward to reduce branches and computing time accordingly. Finally, the proposed model is applied to the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China for constructing a weekly generation scheduling in falling stage. Compared to deterministic dynamic programming (DDP) and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), BRM achieves more satisfactory performance. Moreover, the tradeoffs for risk-averse decision makers are discussed, and an efficient curve about benefit and risk is formed to help make decision.
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Acknowledgments
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation Key Project of China (No. 51239004) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51579107, 51479075). Special thanks are given to the anonymous reviewers and editors for their constructive comments.
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Highlights
1. Considering risk of power generation, a benefit and risk balance optimization model for stochastic hydropower scheduling is proposed.
2. Uncertainty of stochastic inflow is taken into account when a scheduling plan of hydropower station is conducted.
3. The coupling relation among time intervals of inflow is depicted though a multi-layer scenario tree.
4. An appropriate and novel method for scenario reduction and reconstruction is proposed.
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Yuan, L., Zhou, J., Li, C. et al. Benefit and Risk Balance Optimization for Stochastic Hydropower Scheduling. Water Resour Manage 30, 3347–3361 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1354-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1354-2