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Uncertainties of a Regional Terrestrial Biota Full Carbon Account: A Systems Analysis

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Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus

Abstract

We discuss the background and methods for estimating uncertainty in a holistic manner in a regional terrestrial biota Full Carbon Account (FCA) using our experience in generating such an account for vast regions in northern Eurasia (at national and macroregional levels). For such an analysis, it is important to (1) provide a full account; (2) consider the relevance of a verified account, bearing in mind further transition to a certified account; (3) understand that any FCA is a fuzzy system; and (4) understand that a comprehensive assessment of uncertainties requires multiple harmonizing and combining of system constraints from results obtained by different methods. An important result of this analysis is the conclusion that only a relevant integration of inventory, process-based models, and measurements in situ generate sufficient prerequisites for a verified FCA. We show that the use of integrated methodology, at the current level of knowledge, and the system combination of available information, allow a verified FCA for large regions of the northern hemisphere to be made for current periods and for the recent past.

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Notes

  1. We note that Jonas and Nilsson (2007) go one terminological step further than we do here and strictly distinguish between “validation” and “verification” by applying science-theoretical principles. However, although we use the term “verification” somewhat indifferently, our ultimate understanding of verification, especially in the context of our integrated (multimeasurement/modeling) approach presented here, is in line with the bottom-up/top-down accounting/verification approach discussed by Jonas and Nilsson.

  2. We distinguish between a full carbon budget (FCB) as a natural system and a full carbon account (FCA) as an artificial accounting system.

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Acknowledgment

The SIBERIA-II project (EVG-2001-00008), 2003–2005, was funded by the European Commission (Generic Activity 7.2: Development of Generic Earth Observation Technologies).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria

    S. Nilsson, A. Shvidenko, M. Jonas & I. McCallum

  2. Center For Ecology and Hydrology, Monks Wood, UK

    A. Thomson

  3. Department of Geography, Climate and Land Surface Systems Interaction Centre (CLASSIC), University of Leicester, Bennett Building, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK

    H. Balzter

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  1. S. Nilsson
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  2. A. Shvidenko
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  3. M. Jonas
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  4. I. McCallum
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  5. A. Thomson
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  6. H. Balzter
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Correspondence to S. Nilsson.

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Nilsson, S., Shvidenko, A., Jonas, M. et al. Uncertainties of a Regional Terrestrial Biota Full Carbon Account: A Systems Analysis. Water Air Soil Pollut: Focus 7, 425–441 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11267-006-9119-1

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