Abstract
Bluetongue (BT) disease poses a constant risk to the livestock population around the world. A better understanding of the risk factors will enable a more accurate prediction of the place and time of high-risk events. Mapping the disease epizootics over a period in a particular geographic area will identify the spatial distribution of disease occurrence. A Geographical Information System (GIS) based methodology to analyze the relationship between bluetongue epizootics and spatial–temporal patterns was used for the years 2000 to 2015 in sheep of Andhra Pradesh, India. Autocorrelation (ACF), partial autocorrelation (PACF), and cross-correlation (CCF) analyses were carried out to find the self-dependency between BT epizootics and their dependencies on environmental factors and livestock population. The association with climatic or remote sensing variables at different months lag, including wind speed, temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), land surface temperature (LST), was also examined. The ACF & PACF of BT epizootics with its lag showed a significant positive autocorrelation with a month’s lag (r = 0.41). Cross-correlations between the environmental variables and BT epizootics indicated the significant positive correlations at 0, 1, and 2 month’s lag of rainfall, relative humidity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial autocorrelation analysis estimated the univariate global Moran’s I value of 0.21. Meanwhile, the local Moran’s I value for the year 2000 (r = 0.32) showed a high degree of spatial autocorrelation. The spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the BT epizootics in sheep are having considerable spatial association among the outbreaks in nearby districts, and have to be taken care of while making any forecasting or disease prediction with other risk factors.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to the Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairy Development and Fisheries, Government of Telangana, for providing the details of BT epizootics of the study period and the Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Dehradun, for carrying out the part of research in the summer internship programme.
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Ravichandran Karthikeyan —Data curation, Formal analysis, Writing—original draft.
Ramkumar N Rupner – Methodology, Data curation.
Shiva Reddy Koti – Methodology, Resources, Software.
Nagaraj Jaganathasamy – Methodology, Validation.
Michael V. Lalrinzuala—Writing—review & editing.
Sachin Sharma—Writing—review & editing.
Rotluangkimi—Writing—review & editing.
Shikha Tamta—Writing—review & editing.
Y.P.Malik—Writing—review & editing.
Sukdeb Nandi—Validation.
D.K. Sinha—Validation.
B.R Singh—Validation.
Z.B.Dubal- Validation.
Obli Rajendran Vinodhkumar —Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Writing—original draft, Project administration.
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Karthikeyan, R., Rupner, R.N., Koti, S.R. et al. Analysis of bluetongue disease epizootics in sheep of Andhra Pradesh, India using spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Vet Res Commun 46, 967–978 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11259-022-09902-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11259-022-09902-x