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Urban growth in China: past, prospect, and its impacts

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Abstract

Rapid growth and globalization of the domestic economy have dramatically accelerated urbanization in China, resulting in significant environmental impacts and challenges for sustainable development. Using a multistate model accounting for distributional aspects of age, sex, education, and migration in rural and urban regions, we estimate the magnitude of urbanization in China through 2030 and examine some major associated sustainability issues. Results indicate that: (1) for a range of assumptions, China’s urban population will nearly double from 2000 to 2030; (2) the labor force will constitute a larger share of total population in urban areas than rural due to internal migration of younger workers—this appears particularly true for the mega-urban metropolises of Beijing and Shanghai; (3) rural populations will experience more aging than urban; and (4) level of education among China’s rural labor force will remain low, which could pressure China’s industrial structural transition from an agricultural to a service-based economy.

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Acknowledgments

This paper is the result of a joint project of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Peking University: “Regional Urbanization and Human Capital Projections for China.” It was carried out with the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 70373011). The authors are especially grateful to Hai-Tao Wang, Qiang Ren, Bo Yu, and Bingzi Zhang for their assistance in data collection and model simulation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    G.-Y. Cao & S. Nilsson

  2. The Institute of Population Research, Peking University, WHO Collaborating Center on Reproductive Health and Population Science, Beijing, 100861, People’s Republic of China

    G. Chen, L.-H. Pang & X.-Y. Zheng

Authors
  1. G.-Y. Cao
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  2. G. Chen
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  3. L.-H. Pang
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  4. X.-Y. Zheng
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  5. S. Nilsson
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Correspondence to G.-Y. Cao or X.-Y. Zheng.

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Cao, GY., Chen, G., Pang, LH. et al. Urban growth in China: past, prospect, and its impacts. Popul Environ 33, 137–160 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-011-0140-6

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