Abstract
This study examines whether individuals can accurately predict trust and trustworthiness in others based on their appearance. Using photos and decisions from previous experimental trust games, subjects were asked to view the photos and guess the levels of trust and trustworthiness of the individuals depicted. The results show that subjects had little ability to accurately guess the trust and trustworthiness behavior of others. There is significant heterogeneity in the accuracy of guesses, and errors in guesses are systematically related to the observable characteristics of the photos. Subjects’ guesses appear to be influenced by stereotypes based on the features seen in the photos, such as gender, skin color, or attractiveness. These findings suggest that individuals’ beliefs that they can infer trust and trustworthiness from appearance are unfounded, and that efforts to reduce the impact of stereotypes on inferred trustworthiness may improve the efficiency of trust-based interactions.
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All data and reproduction materials are housed in Open Science Framework, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/TPX5M.
Notes
In a few studies the trustee is allowed to send back any amount, including the initial endowment (Johnson & Mislin, 2011). In a number of studies, the trustor is not endowed at all (Glaeser et al., 2000), which is highly consequential for behavior in the game. Aksoy et al. (2018) contrast behavior in the two designs and show that behavior in the standard game (but not the modified game) correlates with survey-based measures of trust. Our study endows both players (as in the original game), and does not allow the transfer of the trustee endowment.
In Wilson and Eckel (2006) a total of 206 subjects were photographed (half as trustors and half as trustors). A random sample of 40 trustors and trustors was chosen for this study. A programming error resulted in an imbalance in the images used. We selected a subset in order to ensure that we had sufficient power to evaluate each image pair with our available budget. The experiment was conducted in the Behavioral Research Lab at Rice University.
All data and reproduction materials are housed in Open Science Framework, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/TPX5M.
The choice of paying for correct guesses was designed to eliminate averaging across guesses. If we had used a scoring rule of some type, then subjects could have been incentivized to guess the center of the distribution to be guaranteed some level of payoff. Perversely under the incentive system used here, if the subject guessed that nothing was sent or returned, and they were correct, they would earn nothing. We find that subjects did guess zero (see Supporting Information, Section II, Fig. 2a and b). Subjects also varied their guesses across photos.
Although subjects in the paired treatment viewed 40 different photographs, they only evaluated 20 images. These are the images of the trustor in the first 10 decisions and the trustee for the second 10 decisions.
Subjects were paid in Experimental Currency Units (ECUs) which had an exchange rate of 2 to 1. The dollar figures given here are in US dollars and not ECUs.
This is in contrast to Eckel and Petrie (2011) who find that purchasing the ability to view a photo is profitable (i.e. allows better guessing about trustworthiness) only when both parties to the game view each others’ pictures. This implies that subjects are better at guessing who will trust THEM, moreso thamn who is trusting in general.
A Kolmorgov-Smirnov test of the equivalence of distributions shows differences between sender and receiver versus paired (sender and receiver, p = 0.24; sender and paired, p = 0.55, receiver and paired, p = 0.45). Likewise a ttest shows that each distribution is significantly different from zero.
We checked to make certain that the selection of photos did not introduce the biased beliefs that we measure in this section. The analysis in the Supplemental Information, Section III, Tables 3a and 3b find no bias in what the photographed subjects chose.
In the Supplemental Information, Section IV we provide estimates for the raw guesses. These estimates do not account for accuracy. In Section V we provide a comparison of models using the subject’s own assessment of the characteristics of the photo and the average assessment by all participants in the study.
Ball et al. (2010) pursue a similar strategy when looking at risk preferences and guesses about others’ risk preferences. They show that physical appearance biases the guesses about others’ preferences. For a sampling of studies that have shown these biases, see Burns (2012), Croson and Gneezy (2009), Scharlemann et al. (2001) and Wilson and Eckel (2006).
It might be the case that “shared identity” matters, as noted by a reviewer. In the Supplemental Information, Section IV, Table 4c, we replicate Table 4, controlling for shared gender and shared race/ethnicity between the observer and the observed photos. We find no effect for these interactions. We suspect that the incentivized task for the subjects trumped the potential for shared identity to impact behavior.
Note that in Scharlemann et al. (2001) both smiling and non-smiling photos of the same person are used in the study, thereby controlling for other characteristics. In the current study only one photo per person is shown, and 66% of these are smiling. Therefore, other factors may obscure the effect of smiling.
In the Supporting Information, Section IV, Table 4d we again include measures for “shared identity.” Again we find no effect for the estimates in Table 5.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the thoughtful reviewers who helped improve this manuscript. We benefited from audience comments when these results were presented at the 2014 North American Economic Science Association Meeting in Fort Lauderdale, Florida and the 2015 Texas Experimental Association Symposium (TExAS) in College Station, Texas. We also acknowledge support by the National Science Foundation (SES 0318116; SES-0318180 and SES-0618226). NSF is not responsible for any findings reported here. All data and code are housed in Open Science Framework, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/TPX5M .
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National Science Foundation (SES 0318116) “Collaborative Research on Trust, Race, Framing and Institutions.”
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Wilson, R.K., Eckel, C.C. Attributions of Trust and Trustworthiness. Polit Behav (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09855-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09855-6