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A framework for risk-based assessment of urban floods in coastal cities

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Abstract

Many coastal cities in developing countries are at the risk of flooding due to a progressive increase in the built-up areas and poor management of storm water. The flooding situation in coastal cities gets accentuated further due to climate-induced natural disasters such as cyclones and climate change-induced sea-level rise that adversely impact the city's natural drainage potential. This study developed a composite urban flood risk index consisting of three sub-indices and 20 key natural, physical, social, and economic influencing variables for a coastal city (i.e., Cuttack) in eastern India, the intensity of storm run-off being one among the many. The intensity–duration–frequency curve developed shows that the city can experience floods with a peak discharge of 1320 cubic metre per second every alternate year for a rainfall intensity of 2-h duration. The urban flood risk index computed for all the city wards shows that out of the 59 wards, only one ward has low flood risk (index value < 0.40) and 20 wards are at high risk (index value 0.55 and above) from the urban flood. Thereafter, factors leading to high risk due to urban floods were identified and the institutional capacities available with the urban utility for fighting floods analysed.

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Fig. 1

(Source: Developed by authors)

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(Source: Authors analysis using data set from the Indian Meteorological Department and the website of Special Relief Commissioner, Govt. of Odisha)

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(Source: Authors own analysis)

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(Source: Authors own analysis)

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(Source: Authors' computation)

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(Source: Authors own analysis)

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(Source: Authors own analysis)

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(Source: Authors own analysis)

Fig. 13

(Source: Based on the Government of Malaysia 2011)

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Funding

This paper is based on a research study that received financial support under the USAID, the Ministry of Home Affairs (Government of India), and the UNDP partnership 'Developing Resilient Cities through Risk Reduction in the context of Disaster and Climate Change'.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Hyderabad, Telangana, 500082, India

    M. Dinesh Kumar & Saurabh Kumar

  2. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Delhi, New Delhi, 110003, India

    Shubham Tandon

  3. Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Liaison Office, Delhi, New Delhi, 110085, India

    Nitin Bassi

  4. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Cuttack City, Odisha, 753001, India

    Pradipta Kumar Mohanty

  5. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Delhi, New Delhi, 110003, India

    Manish Mohandas

Authors
  1. M. Dinesh Kumar
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  2. Shubham Tandon
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  3. Nitin Bassi
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  4. Pradipta Kumar Mohanty
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  5. Saurabh Kumar
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Contributions

The research was conceptualised by Dr. M. Dinesh Kumar and Mr. Manish Mohandas. Dr. M. Dinesh Kumar and Mr. Nitin Bassi developed the methodology for the study. Data collection was undertaken by Dr. Saurabh Kumar and coordinated by Mr. Pradipta Kumar Mohanty. Data were analysed by Mr. Nitin Bassi. All authors contributed equally to the writing of the paper.

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Correspondence to Nitin Bassi.

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Kumar, M.D., Tandon, S., Bassi, N. et al. A framework for risk-based assessment of urban floods in coastal cities. Nat Hazards 110, 2035–2057 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05024-w

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