Abstract
Natural hazards like floods and droughts affect many aspects of life. The study in particular examined the impacts of droughts on under-five mortality rate in Southern Africa, adjusting for gross domestic product (GDP) and literacy rate. Despite drought and child mortality being key public health concerns in Southern Africa over the past few decades, there have hardly been any studies examining the relationships between them. The study used publicly available data from 1980 to 2012. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated for 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-monthly time scales for ten southern African countries. The wetter and drier states are represented by positive and negative SPI values, respectively. SPI, GDP, and literacy rate were considered for predicting child mortality rate using both Multiple Linear Regression techniques and nonlinear methods (Generalized Additive Model), on a leave-one-year-out cross validation approach for model evaluation. Child mortality increased as the drought worsened for five countries in this region, namely Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, and Zambia. We found that child mortality can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy using three predictor variables—drought index, GDP and literacy rate. Statistical modelling based on early warning system can complement regional capacities for drought response systems to increase child survival rate in drought-prone areas
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Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the financial support from the School of Social Sciences and Psychology, Western Sydney University, Australia for conducting this study. The computations and plotting have been carried out using the freely available R statistical computing platform (http://www.r-project.org/) (The R Project for Statistical Computing 2012). We acknowledge IMF, UN and UNESCO for the data used in this study.
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Khan, M.Z.K., Rahman, A., Rahman, M.A. et al. Impact of droughts on child mortality: a case study in Southern African countries. Nat Hazards 108, 2211–2224 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04776-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04776-9