Skip to main content
Springer Nature Link
Log in

Changing properties of precipitation extremes in the urban areas, Yangtze River Delta, China, during 1957–2013

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is one of largest river deltas and metropolitan areas in the world with strong human interference, so it is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Based on daily precipitation dataset of 16 rain gauges in Yangtze River Delta and Mann–Kendall trend detection techniques, the trend in annual and seasonal precipitation extremes has been investigated in the period 1957–2013. Possible links between changes in extreme precipitation and monsoon indices have also been explored. The results show that: (1) the increasing trends of consecutive wet days, maximum daily precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation and maximum precipitation amount in the past 57 years in YRD can be detected. Much attention should be paid to higher risk of flash flood in these areas, especially in big cities of Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou and Ningbo. (2) Both precipitation days and amount of heavy events (defined as over 90th, 95th and 99th) exhibit overwhelming upward tendency in summer and winter throughout YRD. The summer is to meet with heavier precipitation events as result of larger increasing magnitude in heavy rain days and amounts in the past 57 years. So, high importance should be placed on the relief for flood in summer in the large cites. (3) There is an abrupt change point for extreme precipitation events, and increased annual total precipitation has impact on the upward tendency of heavy rainfall events in YRD on great scale. In addition, the significant correlations between indices (P90, P95, R90 and R95) and monsoon indices (East Asian Summer Monsoon Index and South Asia Summer Monsoon Index) indicate that extreme precipitation events are related to the EASMI and SASMI. Therefore, these properties of precipitation extremes are of great significance to the control of natural hazards in YRD with high degree of human activities and understanding the impact of climate change on hydrologic processes.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexander LV et al (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos 111:D05109. doi:10.1029/2005jd006290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burn DH, Hag Elnur MA (2002) Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. J Hydrol 255:107–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cao L, Pan S, Wang Q, Wang Y, Xu W (2014) Changes in extreme wet events in Southwestern China in 1960–2011. Quat Int 321:116–124. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2013.11.014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Lima MIP, Krajewski WF, de Lima JLMP (2012) Space-time precipitation from urban scale to global change preface. Adv Water Resour 45:1. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.06.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Degefu MA, Bewket W (2014) Variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia. Reg Environ Change 14:799–810. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0538-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289:2068–2074. doi:10.1126/science.289.5487.2068

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fatichi S, Caporali E (2009) A comprehensive analysis of changes in precipitation regime in Tuscany. Int J Climatol 29:1883–1893. doi:10.1002/joc.1921

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu AH, Chen YN, Li WH, Li BF, Yang YH, Zhang SH (2013) Spatial and temporal patterns of climate variations in the Kaidu River Basin of Xinjiang, Northwest China. Quat Int 311:117–122. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2013.08.041

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao G, Chen DL, Xu CY, Simelton E (2007) Trend of estimated actual evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2002. J Geophys Res Atmos. doi:10.1029/2006jd008010

    Google Scholar 

  • Groisman PY, Knight RW, Easterling DR, Karl TR, Hegerl GC, Razuvaev VN (2005) Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J Clim 18:1326–1350. doi:10.1175/jcli3339.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han L, Xu Y, Yang L, Deng X (2015) Changing structure of precipitation evolution during 1957–2013 in Yangtze River Delta. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, China. doi:10.1007/s00477-015-1034-4

    Google Scholar 

  • Haylock MR, Goodess CM (2004) Interannual variability of European extreme winter rainfall and links with mean large-scale circulation. Int J Climatol 24:759–776. doi:10.1002/joc.1033

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Observed climate variability and change. In: Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change vol 881. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

  • Huang J, Sun SL, Zhang JC (2013) Detection of trends in precipitation during 1960–2008 in Jiangxi province, southeast China. Theor Appl Climatol 114:237–251. doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0831-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

  • Joseph JF, Falcon HE, Sharif HO (2013) Hydrologic trends and correlations in South Texas River Basins: 1950–2009. J Hydrol Eng 18:1653–1662. doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000709

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1955) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kunkel K (2003) North American trends in extreme precipitation. Nat Hazards 29:291–305. doi:10.1023/a:1023694115864

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Labat D, Godderis Y, Probst JL, Guyot JL (2004) Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Adv Water Resour 27:631–642. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.02.020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric test against trend. Econometrika 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milly PCD, Wetherald RT, Dunne KA, Delworth TL (2002) Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature 415:514–517. doi:10.1038/415514a

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell Jr J, Dzerdzeevskii B, Flohn H, Hofmeyr W, Lamb H, Rao K, Wallén C (1966) Climatic change: Technical note no. 79, report of a working group of the commission for climatology. WMO

  • New M et al (2006) Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa. J Geophys Res Atmos. doi:10.1029/2005jd006289

    Google Scholar 

  • Pal I, Al-Tabbaa A (2009) Trends in seasonal precipitation extremes—an indicator of ‘climate change’ in Kerala, India. J Hydrol 367:62–69. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.12.025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian WH, Fu JK, Yan ZW (2007) Decrease of light rain events in summer associated with a warming environment in China during 1961–2005. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2007gl029631

    Google Scholar 

  • Trömel S, Schönwiese CD (2007) Probability change of extreme precipitation observed from 1901 to 2000 in Germany. Theor Appl Climatol 87:29–39. doi:10.1007/s00704-005-0230-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Viola F, Liuzzo L, Noto LV, Lo Conti F, La Loggia G (2014) Spatial distribution of temperature trends in Sicily. Int J Climatol 34:1–17. doi:10.1002/joc.3657

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Zhang M, Wang B, Sun M, Li X (2013) Recent changes in daily extremes of temperature and precipitation over the western Tibetan Plateau, 1973–2011. Quat Int 313–314:110–117. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2013.03.037

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • You Q et al (2011) Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961–2003. Clim Dyn 36:2399–2417. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0735-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeng HL, Gao XQ, Zhang W (2005) Evolution characteristics of the precipitation in the Yangtze River delta based on the probability density. Chin Phys 14:1265–1271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai P, Pan X (2003) Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over northern China during the second half of the 20th century. Acta Geogr Sin 58:1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhai PM, Zhang XB, Wan H, Pan XH (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim 18:1096–1108. doi:10.1175/jcli-3318.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai P, Wang C, Li W (2007) A review on study of change in precipitation extremes. Adv Clim Change Res 3:144–148 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Hogg WD, Mekis É (2001) Spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation events over Canada. J Clim 14:1923–1936. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1923:satcoh>2.0.co;2

  • Zhang Q, Xu C-Y, Zhang Z, Chen YD, C-l Liu, Lin H (2008) Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960–2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation. J Hydrol 353:215–227. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.11.023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Peng J, Singh VP, Li J, Chen YD (2014) Spatio-temporal variations of precipitation in arid and semiarid regions of China: the Yellow River basin as a case study. Global Planet Change 114:38–49. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.01.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao Y, Zou X, Cao L, Xu X (2014) Changes in precipitation extremes over the Pearl River Basin, southern China, during 1960–2012. Quat Int 333:26–39. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2014.03.060

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ziegler AD, Sheffield J, Maurer EP, Nijssen B, Wood EF, Lettenmaier DPL (2003) Detection of intensification in global- and continental-scale hydrological cycles: temporal scale of evaluation. J Clim 16:535–547. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0535:doiiga>2.0.co;2

Download references

Acknowledgments

We are gratefully acknowledged the suggestions and comments by the Editor in Chief and reviewers. This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Fund of China (No. 41371046), the Water Resources Public-Welfare Program (Grant Nos. 201201072, 201301075) and the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (Grant No. BK20131276).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Longfei Han, Youpeng Xu, Guangbo Pan, Xiaojun Deng, Chunsheng Hu & Hongliang Xu

  2. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 0316, Oslo, Norway

    Hongliang Xu

  3. Water Resources Department of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, 210029, China

    Hongyi Shi

Authors
  1. Longfei Han
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  2. Youpeng Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  3. Guangbo Pan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  4. Xiaojun Deng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  5. Chunsheng Hu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  6. Hongliang Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  7. Hongyi Shi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Youpeng Xu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Han, L., Xu, Y., Pan, G. et al. Changing properties of precipitation extremes in the urban areas, Yangtze River Delta, China, during 1957–2013. Nat Hazards 79, 437–454 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1850-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1850-3

Keywords