Abstract
The problem of dam safety is one of the most important research topics of water conservancy projects, and many researchers pay much attention to study the risk of earth dam overtopping. This paper synthesizes in the definition of risk the probabilities of dam failure and the corresponding losses, including the probability estimation, losses evaluation and criteria exploring risk approaches. Then, a comprehensive risk assessment system of dam flood overtopping is established, which is widely applicable. Gate failure, randomness of flood, initial water level and time-varying effects are incorporated in the failure probability model. Many complex factors are simplified in losses estimation. In addition, thresholds of various types of losses are proposed and are adapted to the national conditions. The methodology is applied to the Lianghekou hydropower station in China to illustrate the assessment process of flood overtopping risk and to evaluate its safe loophole with a view to the failure of spillway gates. Monte Carlo simulation and JC method programs are adopted to solve the model based on MATLAB tools and DELPHI. The results show that the losses pose significant impact on the risk assessment and should be considered in the assessment of risk. Probability calculation and loss estimation could be well combined with standards, providing a basis for risk management and decision-making.
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Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully appreciate the supports from the State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety (Tianjin University, China), the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51021004), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51379141), and Tianjin Research Program of Application Foundation and Advanced Technology (No. 13JCYBJC19400). In addition, thanks to Wenqi Sa, Ting Zhang and Man Li for their data processing in this research project.
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Zhang, S., Tan, Y. Risk assessment of earth dam overtopping and its application research. Nat Hazards 74, 717–736 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1207-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1207-3