Abstract
The Mediterranean region, expanding across Southern Europe and North Africa, has developed agricultural systems over thousands of years and today is a major agricultural trade actor in the global market. At the same time, environmental and social equity differences in the region are pronounced, and this inequality is reflected in the production of traditional Mediterranean crops, such as grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.), a permanent wood crop, well adapted to the lack of water and recurrent drought in the region, and that has a role in the mitigation role of agriculture in arid environments. Increasing the ability to adapt to adverse impacts of climate change is an important task for Mediterranean agriculture. The indicators selected are widely used by practitioners in this grapevine production sector, linking science to the tools used by stakeholders and therefore encouraging action and innovation among all stakeholders. The novelty of the study is: the definition of adaptation needs based on a combination of indicators of production quantity and quality with a consistent set of climate scenarios; the evaluation of probabilistic changes with special emphasis on drought in a region that has very large climate variability; the definition of adaptation needs based on a consistent set of scenarios in an over 2 million km2; and the evaluation of potential adaptation choices that may contribute to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements in the grapevine production sector. The climate changes scenarios are derived from global datasets. Adaptation efforts are estimated proportionally to the change of the climatic indices and are categorized into low, medium, or high, as a function of the excepted changes in climatic indices. The study emphasizes that non-informed adaptation limits future choices in areas severely impacted.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anderson JD, Jones GV, Tait A, Hall A, Trought MCT (2012) Analysis of viticulture region climate structure and suitability in New Zealand. J Int Sci Vigne Vin 46(3):149–165. https://doi.org/10.20870/oeno-one.2012.46.3.1515
Ashenfelter O, Storchmann K (2016) Climate change and wine: a review of the economic implications. J Wine Econ 11(1):105–138. https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2016.5
Beguería S, Vicente-Serrano SM, Angulo M (2010) A multi-scalar global drought data set: the SPEI base: a new gridded product for the analysis of drought variability and impacts. Am Meteorol Soc 91:1351–1354. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2988.1
Belliveau S, Smit B, Bradshaw B (2006) Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada. Glob Environ Change-Human Policy Dimens 16:364–378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.003
Biagini B, Bierbaum R, Stults M, Dobardzi S, McNeeley SM (2014) A typology of adaptation actions: a global look at climate adaptation actions financed through the Global Environment Facility. Glob Environ Chang 25:97–108
Camps JO, Ramos MC (2012) Grape harvest and yield responses to inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation in an area of north-east Spain with a Mediterranean climate. Int J Biometeorol 56:853–864. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0489-3
Carbonneau A (1998) Irrigation, vignoble et produits de la vigne. In: Traité d’irrigation, Aspects qualitatifs. Lavoisier, Paris, pp 257–276
Cook BI, Wolkovich EM (2016) Climate change decouples drought from early wine grape harvests in France. Nat Clim Chang 6:715–719. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2960
Cramer W, Guiot J, Fader M, Garrabou J, Gattuso J-P, Iglesias A, Lange MA, Lionello P, Llasat MC, Paz S, Peñuelas J, Snoussi M, Toreti A, Tsimplis MN, Xoplaki E (2018) Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean. Nat Clim Chang 8:972–980. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0299-2
Daux V, de Cortazar-Atauri IG, Yiou P, Chuine I, Garnier E, Ladurie E, Mestre O, Tardaguila J (2012) An open-access database of grape harvest dates for climate research: data description and quality assessment. Clim Past 8:1403–1418. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1403-2012
de Cortázar-Atauri I, Daux V, Garnier E, Yiou P, Viovy N, Seguin B, Boursiquot JM, Parker AK, Van Leeuwen C, Chuine I (2010) Climate reconstructions from grape harvest dates: methodology and uncertainties. Holocene 20:599–608. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683609356585
de Cortázar-Atauri IG, Duchêne E, Destrac-Irvine A, Barbeau G, de Rességuier L, Lacombe T, Parker AK, Saurin N, van Leeuwen C (2017) Grapevine phenology in France: from past observations to future evolutions in the context of climate change. OENO One 51:115–126. https://doi.org/10.20870/oeno-one.2017.51.2.1622
De Oruña RM (2010) Climate change associated effects on grape and wine quality and production. Food Res Int 43:1844–1855. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2010.05.001
Dixon RK, Smith J, Guill S (2003) Life on the edge: vulnerability and adaptation of African ecosystems to global climate change. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 8(2):93–113
Duchêne E, Huard F, Dumas V, Schneider C, Merdinoglu D (2010) The challenge of adapting grapevine varieties to climate change. Clim Res 41:193–204. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00850
Engle NL, de Bremond A, Malone EL, Moss RH (2014) Towards a resilience indicator framework for making climate-change adaptation decisions. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 19(8):1295–1312
FAOSTAT (2018). http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RF. Accessed 10 Oct 2019
Ferrise R, Trombi G, Moriondo M, Bindi M (2016) Climate change and grapevines: a simulation study for the Mediterranean basin. Journal of Wine Economics 11(1):88–104. https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2014.30
Ford JD, King D (2015) A framework for examining adaptation readiness. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 20(4):505–526
Fraga H, Malheiro AC, Moutinho-Pereira J, Santos JA (2012) An overview of climate change impacts on European viticulture. Food Energy Secur 1(2):94–110. https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.14
Fraga H, Malheiro AC, Moutinho-Pereira J, Cardoso RM, Soares PMM, Cancela JJ, Pinto JG, Santos JA (2014) Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions. PLoS One 9(9):e108078. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0108078
Fraga H, Santos JA, Mourinho-Pereira J, Carlos C (2015) Statistical modelling of grapevine phenology in Portuguese wine regions: observed trends and climate change projections. J Agric Sci 154(5):795–811. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859615000933
Frieler K, Betts R, Burke E, Ciais P, Denvil S, Deryng D, Ebi K, Eddy T, Emanuel K, Elliott J, Galbraith E, Gosling SN, Halladay K, Hattermann F, Hickler T, Hinkel J, Huber V, Jones C, Krysanova V, Lange S, Lotze HK, Lotze-Campen H, Mengel M, Mouratiadou I, Müller Schmied H, Ostberg S, Piontek F, Popp A, CPO R, Schewe J, Stevanovic M, Suzuki T, Thonicke K, Tian H, Tittensor DP, Vautard R, van Vliet M, Warszawski L, Zhao F (2016) Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geosci Model Dev 10:4321–4345. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017
Gambetta G (2016) Water stress and grape physiology in the context of global climate change. J Wine Econ 11(1):168–180. https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2015.16
Garrote L, Iglesias A, Granados A, Mediero L, Martin-Carrasco F (2015) Quantitative assessment of climate change vulnerability of irrigation demands in Mediterranean Europe. Water Resor Manag 29(2):325–338. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0736-6
González-Zeas D, Quiroga S, Iglesias A, Garrote L (2013) Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe. Reg Environ Chang 13(1):1–11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0388-0
Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204(1-4):182–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X
Hannah L, Roehrdanz P, Ikegami M, Shepard A, Shaw R, Tabor G, Zhi L, Marquet P, Hijmans R (2013) Climate change, wine, and conservation. Proc Natl Acad Sci U. S. A. 110(17):6907–6912. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1210127110
Hempel S, Frieler K, Warszawski L, Schewe J, Piontek F (2013) A trend-preserving bias correction -ISI-MIP approach. Earth Syst Dynam 4:219–236. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013
Huglin P (1978) Nouveau mode d’évaluation des possibilitéshéliothermiques d’un milieu viticole. C.R. Acad Agric France 64:1117–1126
Iglesias A, Garrote L (2015) Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe. Agric Water Manag 155:113–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.03.014
Iglesias A, Garrote L, Diz A, Schlickenrieder J, Martin-Carrasco F (2011) Rethinking water policy priorities in the Mediterranean Region in view of climate change. Environ Sci Pol 14:744–757. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.02.007
Iglesias A, Garrote L, Quiroga S, Moneo M (2012) From climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies: challenges for agriculture in Europe. Clim Chang 112:143–168. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0344-x
Iglesias A, Santillán D, Garrote L (2018) On the barriers to adaption to less water under climate change: policy choices in Mediterranean countries. Water Resour Manag 32(15):4819–4832. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2043-0
IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, and White LL Eds. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York.
Jackson DI, Lombard PB (1993) Environmental and management practices affecting grape composition and wine quality-a review. Am J Enol Vitic 44(4):409–430
Jones G, Alves F (2012) Impact of climate change on wine production: a global over-view and regional assessment in the Douro Valley of Portugal. Int J Glob Warm 4(3–4):383–406
Jones GV, White MA, Cooper OR, Storchmann K (2005) Climate change and global wine quality. Clim Chang 73:319–343. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-4704-2
Jones G, Moriondo M, Bois B, Hall A, Duff A (2009) Analysis of the spatial climate structure in viticulture regions worldwide. Bulletin de l'OIV 82(944):507
Kliewer WM (1973) Berry composition of Vitis Vinifera cultivars as influenced by photo and nycto-temperatures during maturation. J Am Soc Hortic Sci 2:153–159
Malheiro AC, Santos JA, Fraga H, Pinto JG (2010) Climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Europe. Clim Res 43:163–177. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00918
Masui T, Matsumoto K, Hijioka Y, Kinoshita T, Nozawa T, Ishiwatari S, Kato E, Shukla PR, Yamagata Y, Kainuma M (2011) An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm − 2 radiative forcing. Clim Chang 109(1-2):59–76. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5
Mira de Orduna R (2010) Climate change associated effects on wine quality and production. Food Res Int 43:1844–1855. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2010.05.001
Mori K, Goto-Yamamoto N, Kitayama M, Hashizume K (2007) Loss of anthocyanins in red-wine grape under high temperature. J Exp Bot 58:1935–1945. https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erm055
Moriondo M, Bindi M, Kundzewicz ZW, Szwed M, Chorynski A, Matczak P, Radziejewski M, McEvoy D, Wreford A (2010) Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 15:657–679. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-010-9219-0
Moriondo M, Bindi M, Fagarazzi C, Ferrise R, Trombi G (2011) Framework for high-resolution climate change impact assessment on grapevines at a regional scale. Reg Environ Chang 11(3):553–567. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0171-z
Moriondo M, Jones GV, Bois B, Dibari C, Ferrise R, Trombi G, Bindi M (2013) Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change. Clim Chang 119(3-4):825–839. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0739-y
Mosedale JR, Abernethy KE, Smart RE, Wilson RJ, Maclean I (2016) Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine. Glob Chang Biol 22:3814–3828. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13406
Mozell MR, Thach L (2014) The impact of climate change on the global wine industry: challenges & solutions. Wine Econ Policy 3:81–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wep.2014.08.001
Neethling E, Petitjean T, Quénol H, Barbeau G (2017) Assessing local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in the context of climate change. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 22(5):777–803. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9698-0
Resco P, Iglesias A, Bardají I, Sotés V (2016) Exploring adaptation choices for grapevine regions in Spain. Reg Environ Chang 16:979–993. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0811-4
Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V, Cho C, Chirkov V, Fischer G, Kindermann G, Nakicenovic N, Rafaj P (2011) RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim Chang 109(1-2):33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y
Santillán D, Iglesias A, La Jeunesse I, Garrote L, Sotes V (2019a) Vineyards in transition: a global assessment of the adaptation needs of grape producing regions under climate change. Sci Total Environ 657:839–852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.079
Santillán D, Sotés V, Iglesias A, Garrote L (2019b) Adapting viticulture to climate change in the Mediterranean region: evaluations accounting for spatial differences in the producers-climate interactions. BIO Web Conf 12:01001. https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/20191201001
Schultz HR, Jones GV (2010) Climate induced historic and future changes in viticulture. J Wine Res 21:137–145. https://doi.org/10.1080/09571264.2010.530098
Seguin G (1983) Influence des terroirs vitico les sur la constitution et la qualité des vendanges. Bulletin de la Organisation Internationale de la Vigne et le Vin 623:3–18
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's Tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389
Stock M, Gerstengarbe FW, Kartschall T, Werner PC (2005) Reliability of climate change impact assessments for viticulture. Acta Hortic 689:29–39. https://doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2005.689.1
Tate AB (2001) Global warming’s impact on wine. J Wine Res 12:95–109. https://doi.org/10.1080/09571260120095012
Thornthwaite CW, (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr.Rev. 38(1):55–94
Tonietto J, Carbonneau A (2004) A multicriteria climatic classification system for grape-growing regions worldwide. Agric Forest Meteorol 124:81–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2003.06.001
Tynan E (2015) Viticulture: grapevines under stress. Nat Clim Chang 5:718–718. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2749
UNFCCC (2019) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adaptation and resiliency, https://unfccc.int/topics#:28deb0e5-7301-4c3f-a21f-8f3df254f2a4 (last visited 15 August 2019)
van Leeuwen C, Darriet P (2016) The impact of climate change on viticulture and wine quality. J Wine Econ 11(1):150–167. https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2015.2
van Leeuwen C, Schultz H, Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri I, Duchêne E, Ollat N, Pieri P, Bois B, Goutouly JP, Quénol H, Touzard JM, Malheiro A, Bavaresco L, Delrot S (2013) Why climate change will not dramatically decrease viticultural suitability in main wine producing areas by 2050. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 110(33):E3051–E3052. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1307927110
van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, den Elzen MG, Kram T, van Vliet J, Deetman S, Isaac M, Goldewijk KK, Hof A, Beltran AM, Oostenrijk R (2011) RCP2. 6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2 C. Clim Chang 109(1-2):95–116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010) A multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index—SPEI. J Clim 23:1696–1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
Webb LB, Whetton PH, Barlow EWR (2012) Earlier wine-grape ripening driven by climatic warming and drying and management practices. Nat Clim Chang 2:259–264. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1417
Wise RM, Fazey I, Stafford Smith M, Park SD, Eakin HC, Archer Van Garderenf ERM, Campbell B (2014) Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response. Glob Environ Chang 28:325–336
Wolkovich EM, García de Cortázar-Atauri I, Morales-Castilla I, Nicholas KA, Lacombe T (2018) From Pinot to Xinomavro in the world's future wine-growing regions. Nat Clim Chang 8:29–37. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0016-6
Yue S, Wang CY (2002) Regional streamflow trend detection with consideration of both temporal and spatial correlation. Int J Climatol 22(8):933–946. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.781
Funding
We acknowledge the financial support by The European Commission, iSQAPPER project (Grant number 635750) (http://www.isqaper-project.eu/) (AI, LG), The Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, ADAPTA project (Grant No. RP170433021), (AI, LG), and The Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Special Program for Young Scientists (Grant No. VJIDOCUPM19DSS) (“Programa Propio de I + D + I de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. Convocatoria de ayuda dirigida a jóvenes investigadores doctores para fortalecer sus planes de investigación”) (DS).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Iglesias, A. et al. Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 25, 881–899 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-019-09899-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-019-09899-w