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A multi-scale analysis of western spruce budworm outbreak dynamics

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Abstract

Context

Forest insect outbreaks are influenced by ecological processes operating at multiple spatial scales, including host-insect interactions within stands and across landscapes that are modified by regional-scale variations in climate. These drivers of outbreak dynamics are not well understood for the western spruce budworm, a defoliator that is native to forests of western North America.

Objectives

Our aim was to assess how processes across multiple spatial scales drive western spruce budworm outbreak dynamics. Our objective was to assess the relative importance and influence of a set of factors covering the stand, landscape, and regional scales for explaining spatiotemporal outbreak patterns in British Columbia, Canada.

Methods

We used generalized linear mixed effect models within a multi-model interference framework to relate annual budworm infestation mapped from Landsat time series (1996–2012) to sets of stand-, landscape-, and regional-scale factors derived from forest inventory data, GIS analyses, and climate models.

Results

Outbreak patterns were explained well by our model (R 2 = 93%). The most important predictors of infestation probability were the proximity to infestations in the previous year, landscape-scale host abundance, and dry autumn conditions. While stand characteristics were overall less important predictors, we did find infestations were more likely amongst pure Douglas-fir stands with low site indices and high crown closure.

Conclusions

Our findings add to growing empirical evidence that insect outbreak dynamics are driven by multi-scaled processes. Forest management planning to mitigate the impacts of budworm outbreaks should thus consider landscape- and regional-scale factors in addition to stand-scale factors.

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Acknowledgements

Cornelius Senf gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Elsa Neumann Scholarship of the Federal State of Berlin. The research presented here contributes to the Landsat Science Team (http://landsat.usgs.gov/Landsat_Science_Team_2012-2017.php).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany

    Cornelius Senf, Dirk Pflugmacher & Patrick Hostert

  2. Canadian Forest Service (Pacific Forestry Centre), Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, BC, V8Z 1M5, Canada

    Elizabeth M. Campbell & Michael A. Wulder

  3. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany

    Patrick Hostert

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  1. Cornelius Senf
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  2. Elizabeth M. Campbell
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Correspondence to Cornelius Senf.

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Senf, C., Campbell, E.M., Pflugmacher, D. et al. A multi-scale analysis of western spruce budworm outbreak dynamics. Landscape Ecol 32, 501–514 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0460-0

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