Abstract
This paper develops empirical growth models suitable for dual economies, and studies the relationship between structural change and economic growth. Changes in the structure of employment will raise aggregate productivity when the marginal product of labor varies across sectors. The models in the paper incorporate this effect in a more flexible way than previous work. Estimates of the models imply sizeable marginal product differentials, and indicate that the reallocation of labor makes a significant contribution to the international variation in productivity growth.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Acemoglu D., Zilibotti F. (1999). Information Accumulation in Development. Journal of Economic Growth, 4, 5–38
Atkeson A., & Kehoe P.J. (2000). Paths of Development for Early and Late-Bloomers in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model. Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Bardhan P.K., Udry C. (1999). Development microeconomics. Oxford, Oxford University Press
Barro R.J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2): 407–443
Barro R.J. (1999). Notes on growth accounting. Journal of Economic Growth, 4(2): 119–137
Barro R.J., Lee J.-W. (2001). International data on educational attainment: Updates and implications. Oxford Economic Papers, 53(3): 541–563
Barro R.J., Sala-i-Martin X. (2004). Economic growth (2nd ed). Cambridge MA, MIT Press
Basu K. (1997). Analytical development economics: The less developed economy revisited. Cambridge MA, MIT Press
Baum C.F., Schaffer M.E., Stillman S. (2003). Instrumental Variables and GMM: Estimation and Testing. Stata Journal, 3(1): 1–31
Bencivenga V.R., Smith B.D. (1997). Unemployment, migration, and growth. Journal of Political Economy, 105(3): 582–608
Bernanke B.S., Gürkaynak R.S. (2001). Is growth exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil seriously. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 16, 11–57
Bertrand T., Squire L. (1980). The relevance of the dual economy model—a case-study of Thailand. Oxford Economic Papers, 32(3): 480–511
Blackorby C., Schworm W. (1988). The existence of input and output aggregates in aggregate production functions. Econometrica, 56(3): 613–643
Bosworth B.P., Collins S.M. (2003). The empirics of growth: an update. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 113–206
Caselli F. (2005). Accounting for cross-country income differences. In: Philippe Aghion, Steven Durlauf (Eds), Handbook of economic growth (Vol 1A). Amsterdam, North-Holland, pp. 679–741
Caselli F., Coleman W.J. II (2001). The U.S. structural transformation and regional convergence: A reinterpretation. Journal of Political Economy, 109(3): 584–616
Chanda A., Dalgaard C.-J. (2005). Dual economies and international total factor productivity differences. Manuscript, University of Copenhagen
Chenery H., Syrquin M. (1975). Patterns of development, 1950–1970. London, Oxford University Press
Chenery H., Robinson S., Syrquin M. (1986). Industrialization and growth: A comparative study. New York, Oxford University Press
Denison E.F. (1967). Why growth rates differ: Postwar experiences in nine western countries. Washington, Brookings
Denison E.F. (1974). Accounting for United States economic growth 1929–1969. Washington, Brookings
Dennis B.N., İşcan T.B. (2004). Productivity growth and agricultural out-migration in the United States. Manuscript, University of the Pacific
Doepke M. (2004). Accounting for fertility decline during the transition to growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(3): 347–383
Dowrick S. (1989). Sectoral change, catching up and slowing down: OECD post-war economic growth revisited. Economics Letters, 31(4): 331–335
Dowrick S. (2005). Errors in the Penn World Table demographic data. Economics Letters, 87, 243–248
Dowrick S., Gemmell N. (1991). Industrialisation, catching up and economic growth: a comparative study across the world’s capitalist economies. Economic Journal, 101(405): 263–275
Echevarria C. (1997). Changes in sectoral composition associated with economic growth. International Economic Review, 38(2): 431–452
Falkinger J., Grossman V. (2005). Institutions and development: The interaction between trade regime and political system. Journal of Economic Growth, 10, 231–272
Feder G. (1983). On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12(1): 59–73
Feder G. (1986). Growth in semi-industrial countries. In: Chenery H., Robinson S., Syrquin M. (Eds), Industrialization and growth: A comparative study. New York, Oxford University Press
Felipe J., Fisher F.M. (2003). Aggregation in production functions: What applied economists should know. Metroeconomica, 54, 208–262
Fisher F.M. (1992). Aggregation: Aggregate production functions and related topics. Hemel Hempstead, Harvester Wheatsheaf
Fuller W.A. (1977). Some properties of a modification of the limited information estimator. Econometrica, 45(4): 939–954
Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2003). FAOSTAT Statistical Databases. http://apps.fao.org/default.htm [22042003].
Galor O., Moav O., Vollrath D. (2005). Land inequality and the emergence of human capital promoting institutions. Manuscript, Brown University
Galor O., & Mountford A. (2004). Trading population for productivity. Working Paper 2004–16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
Galor O., Mountford A. (2006). Trade and the great divergence: The family connection. American Economic Review, 96, 229–303
Galor O., Weil D.N. (2000). Population, technology and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, 90, 806–828
Gemmell N. (1996). Evaluating the impacts of human capital stocks and accumulation on economic growth: Some new evidence. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58(1): 9–28
Gemmell N., Lloyd T. (2002). An extended ‘Feder’ model of dualistic growth. Economics Bulletin, 15(9): 1–6
Gollin D. (2002). Getting income shares right. Journal of Political Economy, 110(2): 458–474
Gollin D., Parente S.L., Rogerson R. (2002). Structural transformation and cross-country income differences. Manuscript, University of Illinois
Gollin D., Parente S.L., Rogerson R. (2004). Farm work, home work and international productivity differences. Review of Economic Dynamics, 7, 827–850
Graham B.S., Temple J.R.W. (2006). Rich nations, poor nations: How much can multiple equilibria explain?. Journal of Economic Growth, 11(1): 5–41
Greenwood J., Seshadri A. (2005). Technological progress and economic transformation. In: Philippe Aghion, Steven Durlauf (Eds), Handbook of Economic Growth (Vol 1B). Amsterdam, North-Holland, pp. 1225–1273
Greenwood J., Uysal G. (2005). New goods and the transition to a new economy. Journal of Economic Growth, 10(2): 99–134
Gylfason T., Zoega G. (2004). The road from agriculture. Manuscript, University of Iceland
Hahn J., Hausman J., Kuersteiner G. (2004). Estimation with weak instruments: Accuracy of higher-order bias and MSE approximations. Econometrics Journal, 7, 272–306
Hansen G., Prescott E.C. (2002). Malthus to Solow. American Economic Review, 60, 895–911
Heston A., Summers R., & Aten B. (2002). Penn World Table version 6.1. Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania, October. http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu.
Humphries H., Knowles S. (1998). Does agriculture contribute to economic growth? some empirical evidence. Applied Economics, 30, 775–781
Imbs J., Wacziarg R. (2003). Stages of diversification. American Economic Review, 93(1): 63–86
Jeong H., Townsend R.M. (2005). Sources of TFP growth: Occupational choice and financial deepening. Manuscript, University of Chicago
Jorgenson D.W., Griliches Z. (1967). The explanation of productivity change. Review of Economic Studies, 34, 249–283
Jorgenson D.W., Stiroh K.J. (2000). U.S. economic growth at the industry level. American Economic Review, 90, 161–167
Kelley A.C., Williamson J.G. (1973). Sources of growth methodology in low-income countries: A critique. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(1): 138–147
Klenow P., & Rodriguez-Clare A. (1997). The neoclassical revival in growth economics: Has it gone too far? NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 73–103
Koenker R., Hallock K.F. (2001). Quantile regression. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(4): 143–156
Kongsamut P., Rebelo S., Xie D. (2001). Beyond balanced growth. Review of Economic Studies, 68(4): 869–882
Kuznets S. (1961). Economic growth and the contribution of agriculture: Notes on measurement. International Journal of Agrarian Affairs, 3(1): 56–75
Kuznets S. (1971). Economic growth of nations: Total output and production structure. Cambridge MA, Harvard University Press
Laitner J. (2000). Structural change and economic growth. Review of Economic Studies, 67(3): 545–561
Landon-Lane J., Robertson P.E. (2003) Accumulation and productivity growth in industrializing economies. Manuscript, UNSW, Australia.
Lewis W.A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour. The Manchester School, 22(2): 139–191
Lipsey R.G., Carlaw K.I. (2004). Total factor productivity and the measurement of technological change. Canadian Journal of Economics, 37, 1118–1150
Lucas R.E. Jr. (2004). Life earnings and rural–urban migration. Journal of Political Economy, 112(1, pt. 2): S29–S59
Mankiw N.G., Romer D., Weil D. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2): 407–437
Mas-Colell A., Razin A. (1973). A model of intersectoral migration and growth. Oxford Economic Papers, 25(1): 72–79
May K. (1946). The aggregation problem for a one-industry model. Econometrica, 14(1): 285–298
Mazumdar D. (1987). Rural–urban migration in developing countries. In: Mills E.S. (Ed), Handbook of regional and urban economics (Vol II). Amsterdam, North-Holland
Moreira M.J. (2003). A conditional likelihood ratio test for structural models. Econometrica, 71(4): 1027–1048
Moreira M.J., Poi B.P. (2003). Implementing conditional tests with correct size in the simultaneous equations model. Stata Journal, 1(1): 1–15
Naqvi S.N.H. (1996). The significance of development economics. World Development, 24(6): 975–987
Neary J.P. (1978). Dynamic stability and the theory of factor-market distortions. American Economic Review, 68(4): 671–682
Ngai L.R., Pissarides C. (2004). Structural change in a multi-sector model of growth. CEP Discussion paper no. 627, London School of Economics, June.
Paci R., Pigliaru F. (1999). Is dualism still a source of convergence in Europe?. Applied Economics, 31(11): 1423–1436
Pack H. (1992). Technology gaps between industrial and developing countries: Are there dividends for latecomers?. In: Summers L.H., Shah S. (Eds), Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics, 1992
Parente S.L., Rogerson R., Wright R. (2000). Homework in development economics: Household production and the wealth of nations. Journal of Political Economy, 108(4): 680–687
Poirson H. (2000). Factor reallocation and growth in developing countries. IMF working Paper No. WP/00/94, June.
Poirson H. (2001). The impact of intersectoral labour reallocation on economic growth. Journal of African Economies, 10(1): 37–63
Pritchett L. (2000). The tyranny of concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) is not capital. Journal of Economic Growth, 5(4): 361–384
Pritchett L. (2001). Where has all the education gone?. World Bank Economic Review, 15(3): 367–391
Pu S.S. (1946). A note on macroeconomics. Econometrica, 14(4): 299–302
Ray D. (1998). Development economics. Princeton NJ, Princeton University Press
Restuccia D., Yang D.T., Zhu X. (2006). Agriculture and aggregate productivity: A quantitative cross-country analysis. Manuscript, University of Toronto.
Robertson P.E. (1999). Economic growth and the return to capital in developing economies. Oxford Economic Papers, 57(4): 577–594
Robinson S. (1971). Sources of growth in less developed countries: A cross-section study. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 85(3): 391–408
Ruttan V. (1998). The new growth theory and development economics: A survey. Journal of Development Studies, 35(2): 1–26
Schmitt G. (1989). Simon Kuznets’ sectoral shares in labour force: A different explanation of his (I+S)/A ratio. American Economic Review, 79(5): 1262–1276
Stern N. (1991). The determinants of growth. Economic Journal, 101(404): 122–133
Stock J.H., Wright J.H., Yogo M. (2002). A survey of weak instruments and weak identification in generalized method of moments. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(4): 518–529
Syrquin M. (1984). Resource reallocation and productivity growth. In: Syrquin M., Taylor L., Westphal L.E. (Eds), Economic Structure and Performance. London, Academic Press
Syrquin M. (1986). Productivity growth and factor reallocation. In: Chenery H., Robinson S., Syrquin M. Industrialization and growth: A comparative study. New York: Oxford University Press.
Temple J.R.W. (2001). Structural change and Europe’s golden age. University of Bristol Discussion Paper No. 01/519
Temple J.R. W. (2004). Dualism and aggregate productivity. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4387
Temple J.R.W. (2005). Dual economy models: A primer for growth economists. The Manchester School, 73(4): 435–478
Temple J.R.W. (2006). Aggregate production functions and growth conomics. International Review of Applied Economics, 20(3): 301–317
Temple J.R.W., Voth H.-J. (1998). Human capital, equipment investment, and industrialization. European Economic Review, 42(7): 1343–1362
Temple J.R. W., & Woessmann L. (2005). Dualism and cross-country growth regressions. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5655
Vollrath D. (2005). How important are dual economy effects for aggregate productivity? Manuscript, University of Houston.
Wacziarg R. (2001). Structural convergence. Manuscript, Stanford University.
Weil D.N. (2004). Economic growth. Boston, Pearson
Weisdorf J.L. (2006). From domestic manufacture to industrial revolution: Long-run growth and agricultural development. Oxford Economic Papers, 58(2): 264–287
White H. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix stimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48, 817–838
World Bank (1995). World development report. OUP, World Bank.
World Bank (2002). World development indicators 2002 CD-ROM. Washington D.C., The World Bank
World Bank (2005). World development indicators, September 2005 Data obtained via ESDS International, MIMAS, University of Manchester, April 2006
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Temple, J., Wößmann, L. Dualism and cross-country growth regressions. J Econ Growth 11, 187–228 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-006-9003-x
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-006-9003-x