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The distribution of Biomphalaria (Gastropoda: Planorbidae) in Lake Victoria with ecological and spatial predictions using Bayesian modelling

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Abstract

Intestinal schistosomiasis is a global disease of enormous public health importance. Assessing the local risk of transmission of the parasite causing the disease requires an appraisal of the distribution of its intermediate snail hosts, Biomphalaria spp.. In East Africa, the Lake Victorian Basin is a major freshwater ecosystem and highly endemic for intestinal schistosomiasis, although detailed distribution data for Biomphalaria have not been collected. We used on-the-ground malacological surveys and conjoint measurement of environmental determinants to develop models for analysis of variables associated with distribution and predictive snail mapping into data-deficient areas. Four expeditions were undertaken to collect snails along the Lake Victoria shoreline, visiting 223 sites overall. Environmental measurements were recorded at the time of inspection and water samples taken for quantification of anion and cation concentrations. The spatial distributions of Biomphalaria choanomphala and Biomphalaria sudanica were modelled in two Bayesian multivariate models: one non-spatial and one spatial with random effects. The results showed that chloride, nitrate, sulphate and the number of sympatric snail species were significant predictors of B. choanomphala whereas habitat, water depth, pH and sulphate were significant predictors for B. sudanica. The range of spatial autocorrelation was large (572.9 km for B. choanomphala and 175.3 km for B. sudanica). Interpolating snail abundance data by kriging revealed two ‘hot-spots’ of high abundance of Biomphalaria. These areas should be targeted in future expeditions to ground-truth the model’s predictions. Our study is the first to use Bayesian methods for determination of biomedically important snail distributions and sets crucial limnological baseline data for assessment of future changes in snail biodiversity in the Lake Victoria Basin.

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Acknowledgments

The data presented here were collected with the assistance of extensive field teams from VCD, NIMR and NMK. The water samples were analysed by the NHM’s EMMA laboratories, and we would like to thank Stanislav Strekopytov for all of his hard work processing these. This research was funded by an NHM studentship and EU grant CONTRAST (FP6 STREP contract no: 032203, http://www.eu-contrast.eu).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Wolfson Wellcome Biomedical Laboratories, Division of Biomedical Parasitology, Department of Zoology, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London, SW7 5BD, UK

    Claire J. Standley & J. Russell Stothard

  2. School of Biology, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, UK

    Claire J. Standley

  3. Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstr. 57, P.O. Box 4002, Basel, Switzerland

    Penelope Vounatsou & Laura Gosoniu

  4. Molecular Systematic Laboratory, Natural History Museum of Denmark, Sølvgade 83, 1307, Copenhagen K, Denmark

    Aslak Jørgensen

  5. Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, 15 Bombo Road, P.O. Box 1661, Kampala, Uganda

    Moses Adriko & Narcis B. Kabatereine

  6. National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza, Tanzania

    Nicholas J. S. Lwambo

  7. Invertebrate Zoology Section, Nairobi National Museum, Museum Hill, P.O. Box 40658, Nairobi, Kenya

    Charles N. Lange

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  1. Claire J. Standley
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  2. Penelope Vounatsou
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  3. Laura Gosoniu
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  6. Nicholas J. S. Lwambo
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  8. Narcis B. Kabatereine
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  9. J. Russell Stothard
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Correspondence to Claire J. Standley.

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Handling editor: B. Oertli

Nicholas J. S. Lwambo—deceased.

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Standley, C.J., Vounatsou, P., Gosoniu, L. et al. The distribution of Biomphalaria (Gastropoda: Planorbidae) in Lake Victoria with ecological and spatial predictions using Bayesian modelling. Hydrobiologia 683, 249–264 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-011-0962-3

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