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Through Civil War, Food Crisis and Drought: Trends in Fertility and Nuptiality in Post-Soviet Tajikistan

Au Travers de la Guerre Civile, de la Crise Alimentaire et de la Sécheresse : les Évolutions de la Fécondité et de la Nuptialité en Tadjikistan Post-Soviétique

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Abstract

This article has two objectives. First, it aims to complement and extend existing research on post-socialist demographic change, which has thus far tended to focus on Central and Eastern Europe. It does this by describing the nature of post-Soviet trends in nuptiality and fertility in Tajikistan, the republic with the highest rate of population growth during the Soviet period. It finds evidence for a decrease in period fertility after independence: initially, through a decline at higher orders; then, through a significant decrease in the rate of first births, associated with a dramatic decrease in the rate of first union formation since the mid-1990s. Second, it aims to contribute to the demography of conflict and of food crisis. Most clearly, it finds strong evidence for a decrease in nuptiality and fertility associated with the 1995 food crisis.

Résumé

Cet article a deux objectifs. Premièrement, il contribue à enrichir et élargir les recherches relatives aux changements démographiques observés au cours de la période post-socialiste, focalisées jusqu’à présent sur l’Europe Centrale et Orientale, en décrivant les caractéristiques des évolutions post-soviétiques de la nuptialité et de la fécondité au Tadjikistan, République ayant eu le taux de croissance de la population le plus élevé au cours de la période soviétique. Après l’indépendance, le déclin de la fécondité transversale a d’abord débuté par une baisse des naissances de rangs élevés, puis a continué avec une baisse du taux des naissances de premier rang associée à une chute dramatique du taux de formation de la première union depuis le milieu des années 1990. Deuxièmement, cet article apporte une contribution à la démographie des conflits et des crises alimentaires. Plus précisément, il montre clairement une association entre le déclin de la nuptialité et de la fécondité et la crise alimentaire de 1995.

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Notes

  1. However, note that the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania experienced less severe and prolonged decreases in GDP per capita than, for example, Moldova and Ukraine.

  2. There is historical precedent for the 1995 food crisis in Tajikistan. As Harris describes (Harris 2006, p. 26), in the early part of the twentieth century, just as in the Soviet period, the population in what is now Tajikistan was reliant on grain imports after the Tsarist government persuaded local farmers to plant cotton rather than grain. Just as in 1995, these imports were then disrupted—in this case during WW1 when the train lines were cut, stopping grain arriving from the north. In the absence of any international aid, there was a serious famine, estimated to have killed almost a million people (Etherton 1925, p. 154).

  3. The head of the International Federation of Red Cross’ mission in 2001 reported that ‘people have already sold parts of their homes including doors and windows. They now have nothing left to sell… We have seen children digging among rat holes in wheat fields, searching for grain hoarded by the rodents for the winter’ (IRINCAS 2001).

  4. Many religious wedding ceremonies (nikoh) in Tajikistan are not officially registered (Dikaev 2005). Therefore, in the MICS survey, women were asked the question ‘In what month and year did you first marry or start living with a man as if married?’ This is a more accurate reflection of the date of union than the date of marriage registration and, given the significant under-registration issues, a more complete one. Throughout this article, the terms ‘rate of first marriage’ and ‘rate of first union formation’ are used interchangeably; both refer to measures calculated on answers to this question.

  5. Truncation is less of an issue for trends in first unions and first births, which are concentrated at a relatively young age in Tajikistan: traditionally an unmarried woman over the age of 20 is in danger of being considered an ‘old maid’ (Tabyshalieva 1997, p. 52). Therefore, these rates are calculated based on events and exposure for women aged 15–29 years inclusive, for 1986 onwards.

  6. See Rodríguez (2007) for a helpful introduction to proportional hazard models.

  7. The baseline hazards of all models were chosen with two considerations in mind: first, to adequately control for compositional changes in the population at risk over time; second, to ensure a parsimonious model with reasonably few parameters. The baseline hazards in the paper reflect a balance between these two criteria, such that further increasing the number of categories for the baseline hazard does not alter the period coefficients.

  8. In the models here, modelling the hazard of a birth at a given process time t is preferred to shifting back the date of birth by 9 months and modelling the hazard of conception. Focusing only on conceptions does not account for any period effects on fertility acting, for example, through changes in the rate of spontaneous abortions. Ideally, one would use a series of models to estimate separately period effects on conceptions within union, and on spontaneous abortion after conception, but these data are not available.

  9. In the MICS survey, the month but not the date of first union was recorded. In calculating exposure time between date of first union and date of first birth, unions were assumed to take place on the 15th of the month. In total, 332 first births (8% of the total of 4,245 between 1986 and 2004 in the sample) were excluded: 15 first births to women who had never been in first union, and 317 births with an estimated conception date before marriage.

  10. Since there are very few higher-order births to women outside of union in Tajikistan (an estimated 3.5% of second births in the TLSS survey, and less than 1% of births at orders three or above), we present models for overall parity-specific rates and do not consider separate models specifically for those in union.

  11. A covariate for the woman’s highest educational level was also included but, since made it no difference to the nature of the temporal trend, was not retained.

  12. No official registration data on age-specific fertility rates for Tajikistan are available after 1995 from TransMONEE (2006), precluding calculation of the TF15–34 for direct comparison with the survey estimate.

  13. Since annual parity-specific rates are subject to sampling variability at higher-birth orders, the rates are smoothed using a 3-year moving average.

  14. 332 first births (8% of the total in the sample) were estimated to have been conceived before marriage (see footnote 9).

  15. Higher-order births are pooled together in this model to increase the power of tests for differences in fertility between annual periods.

  16. This, and subsequent, p values from model estimates are results of Wald tests assessing the significance of a calendar year coefficient at the 5% level, compared with a reference comparison year. Standard errors were adjusted to take account of the surveys’ sample design.

  17. Across all the women in the survey to have had a first birth within marriage, almost 40% (65%) had their child within the first year (18 months) of marriage.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to Chris Wilson and Tom King who provided helpful suggestions on various drafts of this paper. Remaining shortcomings are the authors’ own responsibility. The support of the United Kingdom Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) (award no. PTA-030-2005-01006) is acknowledged.

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Clifford, D., Falkingham, J. & Hinde, A. Through Civil War, Food Crisis and Drought: Trends in Fertility and Nuptiality in Post-Soviet Tajikistan. Eur J Population 26, 325–350 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-010-9206-x

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