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Assessing climate change impacts on tourism demand in Turkey

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Abstract

This study focuses on quantifying the impacts of climate change on international tourism in Turkey through the estimation of the future number of international tourists for different tourism destinations. For this purpose, 30 tourism destinations were selected from different regions in Turkey offering different kinds of tourism attributes and climatic conditions. Future tourism demand was estimated based on comfort level change, a major determinant of tourist preference, and evaluated through the Tourism Climate Index. Changes in climate comfort levels between a base period (1963–2017), a projected medium term period representing the 2050s (2040–2069), and a projected long term period representing the 2080s (2070–2099) were correlated with the number of international tourists using a regression model developed by Hein et al. (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,1:170–178, 2009). The results of this study project extreme drops in demand, seasonal shifts, and the emergence of new alternative destinations. The study is significant as the first quantitative evaluation of climate change impacts on tourism demand in Turkey through a comparison of the spatial exposures of destinations. The results will help lead the way to a national tourism development roadmap in Turkey through the revelation of regional risks and opportunities and will serve as a benchmarking study for tourism destinations that have similar climate conditions and tourism patterns.

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Notes

  1. The structure of the panel data regression was determined to be a “unit effective one-way random effect model” through the Hausman Test. The panel data consists of a 12-month period, 30 regions, and 1360 observations. The coefficient estimations were obtained via the STATA and EViews software

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Architecture and Design, Department of City and Regional Planning, Pamukkale University, Kınıklı Campus, 20160, Pamukkale, Denizli, Turkey

    Aysun Aygün Oğur

  2. Faculty of Architecture, Department of City and Regional Planning, İstanbul Technical University, İstanbul, Turkey

    Aysun Aygün Oğur & Tüzin Baycan

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Aygün Oğur, A., Baycan, T. Assessing climate change impacts on tourism demand in Turkey. Environ Dev Sustain 25, 2905–2935 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02135-7

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