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Time series forecasting of temperature and turbidity due to global warming in river Ganga at and around Varanasi, India

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Abstract

The fluctuation in the river ecosystem network due to climate change-induced global warming affects aquatic organisms, water quality, and other ecological processes. Assessment of climate change-induced global warming impacts on regional hydrological processes is vital for effective water resource management and planning. The global warming effect on river water quality has been analyzed in this work. The river Ganga stretch near the Varanasi region has been chosen as the study area for this analysis. The air temperature has been predicted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and the Prophet model. The Prophet model has shown better accuracy with a root mean square percent error (RMSPE) value of 3.2% compared to the SARIMA model, which has an RMPSE value of 7.54%. The river temperature, turbidity, and nighttime radiance values have been predicted for the years 2022 and 2025 using the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm. The anthropogenic effect on the river has been evaluated by using the nighttime radiance imageries. The predicted average river temperature shows an increment of 0.58 °C and 0.63 °C for the city and non-city river stretches, respectively, in 2025 compared to 2022. Similarly, the river turbidity shows an increment of 1.21 nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) and 1.17 NTU for the city and non-city stretch, respectively, in 2025 compared to 2022. For future predicted years, the nighttime radiance values for the region situated near the city river stretch show a significant rise compared to the region that lies nearby the non-city river stretch.

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Availability of data and materials

The datasets that support the findings of this study are openly available in Google Earth Engine at https://earthengine.google.com (accessed on July 20 21, 22, and 30 2021).

Code availability

Not applicable.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to take this opportunity to express their gratefulness towards Dr. Prabhat Kumar Singh Dixit, HOD of Civil Engineering Department, IIT (BHU), for constantly motivating to carry forward this study. Additionally, a special vote of thanks to Dr. Prithvish Nag (former Surveyor General of India) for reviewing and adding positive comments on this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (BHU), Varanasi, 221005, India

    Nilendu Das, Rajarshi Bhattacharjee, Ashwani Kumar Agnihotri, Anurag Ohri & Shishir Gaur

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Surathkal, Mangalore, 575025, India

    Avikal Sagar

Authors
  1. Nilendu Das
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  2. Avikal Sagar
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  3. Rajarshi Bhattacharjee
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  4. Ashwani Kumar Agnihotri
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  5. Anurag Ohri
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  6. Shishir Gaur
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rajarshi Bhattacharjee.

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Das, N., Sagar, A., Bhattacharjee, R. et al. Time series forecasting of temperature and turbidity due to global warming in river Ganga at and around Varanasi, India. Environ Monit Assess 194, 617 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10274-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10274-7

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