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Spatiotemporal pattern of regional carbon emissions and its influencing factors in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration of China

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Abstract

Urbanization is a critical factor affecting regional carbon emissions. Clarifying the linkage between urbanization and carbon emissions can provide a decision-making reference to realize China’s goal of carbon neutrality. This article examines the spatiotemporal patterns of urbanization and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2008 to 2018. A complete set of variables is considered to construct relevant land and ecological urbanization variables, and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model and spatial Durbin model (SDM) are adopted to explore the impact of various driving factors on carbon emissions. The results indicate that (1) during the study period, the carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration exhibited a fluctuating increase and that the incremental carbon emissions followed a downward trend. (2) Carbon emissions exhibited a positive spatial correlation. Cold- and hotspot areas indicated a three-gradient pattern from west to east, and a concentric circle radiation pattern occurred with Shanghai as the core. Carbon emissions were spatially imbalanced, but the centre of gravity slightly fluctuated, with a total migration distance of 38.48 km, indicating a migration trend towards the southeast. (3) Regarding the two considered dimensions of urbanization, all driving factors except urbanization played a role in carbon emission enhancement. Consequently, for every 1% increase in economic factors, the carbon emissions correspondingly increased by 0.43–0.57%. Hence, economic factors are the most important factors promoting increased carbon emissions. In the ecological urbanization dimension, urbanization caused a non-significant decrease in carbon emissions, while there was no spillover effect on carbon emissions in neighbouring areas. Accordingly, carbon emission reduction efforts should promote the transformation of urbanization from a land-driven process to an ecologically driven process and realize the synergies among carbon emission reductions, urban development, and land use.

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Funding

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71864016), the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China (No. 2017M622098), the Jiangxi Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.2017KY55), the Postdoctoral Daily Funding of Jiangxi Province (No. 2017RC036), the Science and Technology Project of Jiangxi Education Department (No. GJJ200509 & GJJ200542), the Humanities and Social Sciences Project of Jiangxi Education Department (No. JC20201), the Educational Science Planning of Jiangxi Province (No. 21YB042), and Special Fund Project for Graduate Innovation in Jiangxi Province (No. YC2021–S384).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Tourism and Urban Management, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, 330013, China

    Tiangui Lv, Han Hu, Shufei Fu & Li Wang

  2. Institute of Ecological Civilization, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, 330013, China

    Tiangui Lv, Xinmin Zhang & Hualin Xie

Authors
  1. Tiangui Lv
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  2. Han Hu
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  3. Xinmin Zhang
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  4. Hualin Xie
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  5. Shufei Fu
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  6. Li Wang
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Correspondence to Xinmin Zhang.

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Lv, T., Hu, H., Zhang, X. et al. Spatiotemporal pattern of regional carbon emissions and its influencing factors in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration of China. Environ Monit Assess 194, 515 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10085-w

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