Skip to main content

Advertisement

Springer Nature Link
Log in

Regional frequency analysis of drought severity and duration in Karkheh River Basin, Iran using univariate L-moments method

  • Published:
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Drought is one of the natural disasters that causes a great damage to human life and natural ecosystems. The main differences are in the gradual effect of drought over a relatively long period, impossibility of accurately determining time of the beginning and end of drought, and geographical extent of the associated effects. On the other hand, lack of a universally accepted definition of drought has added to the complexity of this phenomenon. In the last decade, due to increasing frequency of drought in Iran and reduction of water resources, its consequences have become apparent and have caused problems for planners and managers. So in this research, regional frequency analysis using L-moments methods was performed to investigate severity and duration of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SEI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and to study of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts in Karkheh River Basin in Iran. Using K-means clustering method, basin was divided into four homogeneous areas. Uncoordinated stations in each cluster were removed. The best regional distribution function was selected for each homogeneous region, and it was found that Pearson type (3) has the highest fit on the data set in the basin. Based on Hosking and Wallis heterogeneity test, Karkheh Basin with H1 < 1 was identified as acceptable homogeneous in all clusters. The results showed that hydrological drought occurs with a very short time delay in Karkheh River Basin after the meteorological drought, and two indicators show meteorological and hydrological drought conditions well. Agricultural drought occurs after meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively, and its severity and duration are less than the other indicators. Meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts do not occur at the same time in all of the years. In general, the SPI drought index shows the most severe droughts compared with the other three indices. By this way, in 5- to 20-year return period with severity of 3SPI and in 20- to 100-year return period with severity of 7SPI, region IV or the western and northwestern areas of the basin has been affected by severe meteorological drought. By using the regional standardized quantities, it is possible to estimate the probability of drought in any part of the catchment that does not have sufficient data for hydrological studies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

Explore related subjects

Discover the latest articles and news from researchers in related subjects, suggested using machine learning.

Data availability

Part of the data is received from the Meteorological Organization of Iran, another part of the data is received from the Iranian Water Resources Management Organization, and another part is received from ESA Website that all of them are clear and transparent.

Code availability

The codes are written by the original author and will be available with the consent of other authors and Isfahan University of Technology because the codes are related to PhD thesis.

References

  • Ahani, A., Emamgholi, S., Mousavi Nadoushani, S. S., & Ajdari, Kh. (2016). Flood regional frequency analysis using combined cluster analysis and linear moments. Journal of Watershed Management, 6(12), 11–20. (In Persian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Biabanaki, M., & Eslamian, S. (2004). The use of clustering method in determining hydrological homogeneity and its evaluation by audit analysis methods and Andrew curves in Karkheh River Basin. Agricultural Journal, 6(2), 13–26.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chebana, F., & Quarda, T. B. M. J. (2007). Multivariate L-moment homogeneity test. Water Resources Research, 43, 1–14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chebana, F., Quarda, T. B. M. J., & Duong, T. C. (2013). Testing for multivariate trends in hydrologic frequency analysis. Journal of Hydrology, 486, 519–530.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Darand, M. (2015). Drought monitoring in Iran using Palmer drought severity index and its relationship with the ocean - atmospheric transplant patterns. Geographical Research Quarterly, 29(4), 67–82.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dodangeh, E., Shahedi, K., Shiau, J. T., & Mirakbari, M. (2017). Spatial hydrological drought characteristics in Karkheh River basin, southwest Iran using copulas. Journal Earth System Science 1–20.

  • Dracup, J. A., Dracup, K. S., & Lee, P. F. G. Jr. (1980) On the definition of droughts. Water Resources Research, 16(2), 290-302.

  • Eghtedari, M., Bazrafshan, J., Shafiei, M., & Hejabi, S. (2016). Drought prediction of river flow using SPI index and Markov chain in Karkheh catchment. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Research, 23(2), 115–130. (In Persian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Feizi, H., & Eslamian, S. (2006). Using regional method of L-moments in estimating low flows of Karkheh River, Iran Water Resources Management Conference, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran. 1–10 (In Persian).

  • Ghadami, M., Raziei, T., Amini, M., & Modarres, R. (2020). Regionalization of drought severity-duration index across Iran. Natural Hazards, 103, 2813–2827.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghobadi, Y., Pradhan, B., Sayyad, Gh. A., Kabiri, K., & Falamarzi, Y. (2015). Simulation of hydrological processes and effects of engineering projects on the Karkheh River Basin and its wetland using SWAT2009. Quaternary International, 374, 144–153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han, J., & Kamber, M. (2006). Data mining: Concepts and techniques. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, 2nd Edn, New Delhi, India, ISBN: 978–81–312–0535–8.

  • Hao, Z., & AghaKouchak, A. (2013). Multivariate standardized drought index: A parametric multi-index model. Advances in Water Resources., 57, 12–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hargreaves, G. H., & Samani, Z. A. (1982). Estimating potential evapotranspiration. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Div., 108, 225–230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hargreaves, G. H., & Samani, Z. A. (1985). Reference crop evapotranspiration from ambient air temperature. Appl. Engin. Agri., 1(2), 96–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hollinger, S. E., Isard, S. A., & Welford, M. R. (1993). A new soil moisture drought index for predicting crop yields. In: Preprints, Eighth Conf. on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA American Meteorological Society, 187–190.

  • Hosking, J. R. M. (1986). The theory of probability weighted moments. Res. Rep. RC12210, IBM Research Division, Yorktown Heights, New York 10598, USA.

  • Hosking, J. R. M. (1990). L-moments: Analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 52, 105–124.

  • Hosking, J. R. M., & Wallis, J. R. (1993). Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis. Water Resources Research, 29(2), 271–281.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hosking, J. R. M., & Wallis, J. R. (1997). Regional frequency analysis: An approach based on l-moments. Cambridge University.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Javed, T., Li, Y., Rashid, S., Li, F., Hu, Q., Feng, H., Chen, X., Ahmad, S. H., Liu, F., & Pulatov, B. (2021). Performance and relationship of four different agricultural drought indices for drought monitoring in China’s mainland using remote sensing data. Science of the Total Environment, 1–15.

  • Kamali, B., Houshmand Kouchi, D., Yang, H., & C. Abbaspour K,. (2017). Multi level drought hazard assessment under climate change scenarios in semi-arid regions – A case study of the Karkheh River Basin in Iran. Journal of Water, 9(241), 1–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karimi, M., & Shahedi, K. (2013). Hydrological drought analysis of Karkheh River Basin in Iran using variable threshold level metsshod. Current World Environment, 8(3), 419–423.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karimi, M., Shahedi, K., Raziati, T., & MirYaghoub Zadeh, M. H. (2019a). Evaluation of vegetation indices in agricultural drought analysis using remote sensing technique in Karkheh river basin. Iranian Remote Sensing and GIS Journal, 11(4), 29–46. (In Persian).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karimi, M., Melesse, A. M., Khosravi, Kh., & Mamuye, M. (2019b). Analysis and prediction of meteorological drought using SPI index and ARIMA model in the Karkheh River Basin (pp. 343–353). Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability Journal.

    Google Scholar 

  • Khalili, N., Rezaei Pajand, H., Derakhshan, H., Davari, K. (2019). Develop a framework for assessing risk of agricultural drought for rain fed wheat. Iranian Journal of Water Resources Research, 14, (4): 60–72( In persion).

  • Koushki, R., Rahimi, M., Amiri, M., Mohammadi, M., & Dastourani, J. (2018). Investigation of temporal relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought in Karkheh Basin. Iranian Journal of Eco Hydrology, 4(3), 687–698. (In Persian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, S. H., & Maeng, S. J. (2005). Estimation of drought rainfall using L-moments. Irrigation and Drainage, 54, 279–294.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee, S. H., Yoo, S. H., Choi, J. Y., & Bae, S. (2017). Assessment of the impact of climate change on drought characteristics in the Hwanghae plain. North Korea Using Time Series SPI and SPEI, Water, 9(579), 1981–2100.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, S. J., Kim, N., Lee, Y. (2021). Development of integrated crop drought index by combining rainfall, land surface temperature, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and vegetation index for agricultural drought monitoring. Remote Sensing Journal, 1–22.

  • Liu, W. T., & Kogan, F. N. (1996). Monitoring regional drought using the vegetation condition index. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 17, 2761–2782.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Paper Presented at 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society Anaheim, California USA.

  • Mesbah Zade, T., & Soleimani Sardo, F. (2018). Investigation of time trend of hydrological and meteorological drought in Karkheh catchment. Iran Watershed Management Science and Engineering, 12(40), 105–115. (In Persian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirabbasi, R., Anagnostou, E. N., Fakheri-Fard, A., Dinpashoh, Y., Eslamian, S. (2013). Analysis of meteorological drought in Northwest Iran using the joint deficit index. Journal of Hydrology, 1–52.

  • Mishra, A. K., Desai, V. R., & Singh, V. P. (2007). Drought forecasting using a hybrid stochastic and neural network model. Journal Hydrology Engineering, ASCE 12(6):626–638.

  • Modarres, R., Soltani Kopai, S. (2006). Analysis of regional flood frequency in Karkheh Basin using L-moments method, Seventh International Seminar on River Engineering, Ahvaz, Iran, 1–10, (In Persian).

  • Mohit, E. P. (2018). Evaluation of standardized multivariate drought index (MSDI) in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. Master Thesis. Department of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of Technology. Isfahan, Iran. PP. 126, (In Persian).

  • Monazam, N., Sedighi, H., & Valizadeh, N. (2017). Frequency of drought investigation on Karkheh Basin in Lorestan province. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 6(10), 732–741. (In Persian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Norouzi, A., & Mohammadi, Z. (2016). Investigation of hydrological drought and its effects on agriculture in Lenjan region. Journal of Spatial Planning (geography), 6(2), 97–116. (In Persian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Palmer, W. C. (1965). Meteorologic drought. US Department of Commerce. Weather Bureau, Research Paper No. 45, 58 pp.

  • Palmer, W. C. (1968). Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: The new crop moisture index. Weatherwise, 21, 156–161.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sadati Nejad, S. J., Abedi, R., Honarbakhsh, A., & Abdollahi, Kh. (2016). Regional analysis of meteorological drought frequency in Karun One Basin. Watershed Management Research Journal, 6(12), 108–117. (In Persian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Safavi, H. R., Khoshoei Esfahani, M., & Zamani, A. R. (2014). Integrated Index for assessment of vulnerability to drought, case study: Zayandehrood River Basin. Iran. Water Resour. Management, 28, 1671–1688.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Safavi, H. R., Raghibi, V., Mazdiyasni, O., & Mortazavi-Naeini, M. (2017). A new hybrid drought-monitoring framework based on nonparametric standardized indicators. Hydrology Research, 1–15.

  • Saghafian, B., Ghasemi, A. R., & Golian, S. (2013). Flood discharge frequency analysis based on simulation of rainfall-runoff model and statistical distributions. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research (iranian Journal of Agricultural Sciences), 44(1), 21–32. (In Persian).

    Google Scholar 

  • Salajegh, A., Razavizade, S., Khorasani, N., Hamidifar, M., & Salajegh, S. (2011). Land use changes and its effects on water quality (Case study: Karkheh watershed). Journal of Environmental Studies, 37(58), 81–86.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shah, D., & Mirsha, B. (2020). Integrated drought index (IDI) for drought monitoring and assessment in India. Water Resource Journal, 1–22.

  • Wang, P. X., Li, X. W., Gong, J. Y., & Song, C. (2001). Vegetation temperature condition index and its application for drought monitoring. Conference: Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 1:1–10.

  • Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985). Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water International, 10(3), 111–120.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu, L., Abbaszadeh, P., Moradkhani, H., Chen, N., & Zhang, X. (2020). Continental drought monitoring using satellite soil moisture, data assimilation and an integrated drought index. Remote Sensing of Environment, 250, 1–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Q., Qi, T., Singh, V. P., Chen, Y. D., & Xiao, M. (2015). Regional frequency analysis of droughts in China: A multivariate perspective (pp. 1–21). Published Online.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, B., & He, C. (2015). A modified water demand estimation method for drought identification over arid and semiarid regions. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1–9.

  • Zhang, B., Aghakouchak, A., Yang, Y., Wei, J., & Wang, G. (2019). A water-energy balance approach for multi-category drought assessment across globally diverse hydrological basins. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 264, 247–265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, X., Chen, N., Li, J., Chen, Z., & Niyogi, D. (2017). Multi-sensor integrated framework and index for agricultural drought monitoring. Remote Sensing of Environment, 188, 141–163.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

All research has been done as a PhD thesis at Isfahan University of Technology in Iran (PhD student: Saeideh Parvizi, supervisors: Prof. Saeid Eslamian and Prof. Mahdi Gheysari, advisors: Prof. AliReza Gohari and Prof. Saeid Soltani Kopai).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, 8415683111, Isfahan, Iran

    Saeideh Parvizi, Saeid Eslamian, Mahdi Gheysari & Alireza Gohari

  2. Department of Rangeland and Watershed, Faculty of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of Technology, 8415683111, Isfahan, Iran

    Saeid Soltani Kopai

Authors
  1. Saeideh Parvizi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  2. Saeid Eslamian
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  3. Mahdi Gheysari
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  4. Alireza Gohari
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  5. Saeid Soltani Kopai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Saeideh Parvizi, Prof.Saeid Eslamian, Prof.Mahdi Gheysari, Prof.Alireza Gohari, and Prof.Saeid Soltani Kopai. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Saeideh Parvizi, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Saeideh Parvizi.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval

Our manuscript has not been submitted to more than one journal for simultaneous consideration. The submitted work is original and has not been published elsewhere in any form or language (partial or complete). This study is not divided into several parts and all of them are written in this version. Results presented clearly, honestly, and without fabrication, falsification, or inappropriate data manipulation (including image-based manipulation). No data, text, or theories by others are presented as if they were the author’s own and if another article is used in a part of the text, it is referenced.

Consent to participate

The authors have no prohibitions to participate. They are fully satisfied with participation.

Consent for publication

The authors have no prohibitions to publication. They are fully satisfied with the publication.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Parvizi, S., Eslamian, S., Gheysari, M. et al. Regional frequency analysis of drought severity and duration in Karkheh River Basin, Iran using univariate L-moments method. Environ Monit Assess 194, 336 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-09977-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-09977-8

Keywords