Abstract
It is essential to predict areas of losses or exchanges of ecosystem services to adapt communities to the impacts caused by climate change. Particularly for provisioning ecosystem services provided by economically important plant species, understanding the association between climate change impacts and deforestation of native vegetation increases the accuracy of those predictions. Thus, we aim to (i) map the richness of provisioning ecosystem services from economically important native plants; (ii) use forecasts (present and future) of the distribution of ecosystem services to assess areas of changes in the number and type of provisioning ecosystems services. We evaluated provisioning ecosystem services from 110 Cerrado native species of economic importance for the local population. We determined the potential distribution of these plants using ecological niche modeling techniques, which were grouped according to the 21 different services provided. The forecasts for variation in richness and type of service used four future climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070). The service losses detected in our models were associated with variables representing the progress of native vegetation deforestation in the biome due to agricultural expansion. Currently, ecosystem services can be found simultaneously in practically the entire biome. However, changes in the global climate will impact the potential geographic distribution of those plants, causing many areas in the biome to have reduced availability of potential ecosystem services. Moreover, due to the association between exposure to climate change and deforestation of native vegetation, the northern region of the biome will likely have the distribution of ecosystem services severely affected.
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Acknowledgements
RBF and MRP thank FAPEG (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás) for PhD scholarships received. We also thank the comments of three anonymous reviewers on previous versions of the manuscript.
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FAPEG (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás) and CNPq (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico) for scholarships and productivity grants. This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brazil (CAPES)—Finance Code 001, by the National Institutes for Science and Technology (INCT) in Ecology, Evolution and Biodiversity Conservation (MCTI/CNPq/FAPEG/465610/2014–5), and Brazilian Network on Global Climate Change Research (Rede CLIMA).
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RBF: Conception and design, analysis and interpretation of data, acquisition of data, drafting of the article. MRP: Conception and design, analysis and interpretation of data, acquisition of data, drafting of the article. JCN: Conception and design, analysis and interpretation of data, drafting of the article, revising critically for important intellectual content.
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Ferreira, R.B., Parreira, M.R. & Nabout, J.C. The impact of global climate change on the number and replacement of provisioning ecosystem services of Brazilian Cerrado plants. Environ Monit Assess 193, 731 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09529-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09529-6