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Probabilistic assessment of phenophase-wise agricultural drought risk under different sowing windows: a case study with rainfed soybean

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Abstract

A new methodology for crop-growth stage-specific assessment of agricultural drought risk under a variable sowing window is proposed for the soybean crop. It encompasses three drought indices, which include Crop-Specific Drought Index (CSDI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The unique features of crop-growth stage-specific nature and spatial and multi-scalar coverage provide a comprehensive assessment of agricultural drought risk. This study was conducted in 10 major soybean-growing districts of Madhya Pradesh state of India. These areas contribute about 60% of the total soybean production for the country. The phenophase most vulnerable to agricultural drought was identified (germination and flowering in our case) for each district across four sowing windows. The agricultural drought risk was quantified at various severity levels (moderate, severe, and very severe) for each growth stage and sowing window. Validation of the proposed new methodology also yielded results with a high correlation coefficient between percent probability of agricultural drought risk and yield risk (r = 0.92). Assessment by proximity matrix yielded a similar statistic. Expectations for the proposed methodology are better mitigation-oriented management and improved crop contingency plans for planners and decision makers.

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Acknowledgements

The research work was supported by All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology (AICRPAM), Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). The first author would like to thank Dr. V.K. Sehgal as he guided me on the research topic of same field during the M.Sc. program.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Santoshnagar, Hyderabad, 500 059, India

    Rajkumar Dhakar, M. A. Sarath Chandran & V. Visha Kumari

  2. ICAR-Indian Institute for Soybean Research, Indore, 452 001, India

    Shivani Nagar

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  1. Rajkumar Dhakar
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  3. Shivani Nagar
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Correspondence to Rajkumar Dhakar.

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Dhakar, R., Sarath Chandran, M.A., Nagar, S. et al. Probabilistic assessment of phenophase-wise agricultural drought risk under different sowing windows: a case study with rainfed soybean. Environ Monit Assess 189, 645 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-6371-y

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