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Assessment of the climate change impacts on fecal coliform contamination in a tidal estuarine system

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Abstract

Climate change is one of the key factors affecting the future microbiological water quality in rivers and tidal estuaries. A coupled 3D hydrodynamic and fecal coliform transport model was developed and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system for predicting the influences of climate change on microbiological water quality. The hydrodynamic and fecal coliform model was validated using observational salinity and fecal coliform distributions. According to the analyses of the statistical error, predictions of the salinity and the fecal coliform concentration from the model simulation quantitatively agreed with the observed data. The validated model was then applied to predict the fecal coliform contamination as a result of climate change, including the change of freshwater discharge and the sea level rise. We found that the reduction of freshwater discharge under climate change scenarios resulted in an increase in the fecal coliform concentration. The sea level rise would decrease fecal coliform distributions because both the water level and the water volume increased. A reduction in freshwater discharge has a negative impact on the fecal coliform concentration, whereas a rising sea level has a positive influence on the fecal coliform contamination. An appropriate strategy for the effective microbiological management in tidal estuaries is required to reveal the persistent trends of climate in the future.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported in part by the Taiwan’s Ministry of Science and Technology under grant no. 103-2625-M-239-002. This financial support is greatly appreciated. The authors also thank the Taiwan Water Resources Agency and Environmental Protection Administration for providing the observed data used in our model validation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Disaster Prevention Engineering, National United University, Miao-Li, 36063, Taiwan

    Wen-Cheng Liu & Wen-Ting Chan

  2. Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, 10093, Taiwan

    Wen-Cheng Liu

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  1. Wen-Cheng Liu
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Correspondence to Wen-Cheng Liu.

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Liu, WC., Chan, WT. Assessment of the climate change impacts on fecal coliform contamination in a tidal estuarine system. Environ Monit Assess 187, 728 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-015-4959-7

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